Happy Sunday! There are so many amazing series wrapping up all across baseball, including everyone’s favorite rivalry, Dodgers-Padres, and there are aces popping up in matchups everywhere. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I’ve been as big a believer in this Tigers lineup as anyone, but there is one clear and obvious weakness they have, and that’s left-handed pitching. Detroit’s posted a dreadful 47 wRC+ against southpaws, which ranks dead last in the league, and they’ve struck out a league-leading 32.7% of the time within the split. They’ll face a left-hander today in Danny Duffy, who has posted a rock-solid 26% strikeout rate. On the other hand, I am an even bigger believer in Michael Fulmer, who has found his game in his second year back from Tommy John surgery and posted a 3.64 xERA with just two walks in 16 innings. He shouldn’t run into a level today that he hasn’t seen yet, and I expect him to keep it rolling.
Luis Castillo still continues to get priced as if it’s 2017. The thing is, the right-hander has been very up-and-down since that dominant season, struggling in 2018 and dealing with control problems in 2019 before looking good in a shortened 2020 season. That hot couple of months hasn’t translated so far in 2021, where Castillo has posted a dreadful 6.05 ERA. His xwOBA on contact has jumped to .390, he’s allowing an average of 90 MPH off the bat, and most concerning of all his strikeout rate is way down to 17.8% this year. That might have something to do with the fact that he’s lost 2 MPH on his four-seam fastball.
This is definitely not the pitcher who we’d expect to be priced competitively with an ace on the road, and back then Castillo may have even been the favorite in a game like this. He’s going to be the far inferior pitcher to Jack Flaherty on Sunday.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
If there’s one thing the Padres can do, it’s hit sinkers. The Fathers were one of the best teams at doing that in 2020, with every member in their lineup aside from Wil Myers posting a hard-hit rate over 40% against the pitch. Manny Machado had a .509 wOBA, Trent Grisham posted a .521 wOBA, and Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 61.8% of them at 95 MPH or more off the bat. That’s carried over into 2021, where Machado has hit a ridiculous 72.7% of sinkers hard, and Tatis, Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham are all over 50%.
So, I don’t think they’ll fear a sinker-baller in Dustin May too much, and we saw last start against the Mariners what happens when May runs into a team that hits sinkers well. Joe Musgrove’s breakout is for real, and he should do more than enough here as the Padres rip these May sinkers. It’s insane that I’m taking the Padres for a fourth straight game, but the matchup certainly calls for it.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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