Though one of our three bets got rained out last Wednesday, we’re still making money through two weeks, with articles plays standing at 3-2 for the season. We’ll look to improve on that record during another busy slate of baseball, with a few of the angles I’m leaning towards taking place throughout the afternoon — so make sure to get those bets in quickly.
Here are my favorite MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Editor’s Note: Twins SP Kenta Maeda will start today’s game vs. the Athletics.
Try as I might, I just don’t understand this line. Heck, the Athletics were originally home underdogs in this spot, though things have adjusted the past few hours. After sweeping both legs of Tuesday’s doubleheader versus Minnesota — and allowing zero runs while doing so — Oakland has now reeled off 10-straight wins. I mean, they’ll eventually lose, but it doesn’t have to be on Wednesday, especially with Frankie Montas on the mound. The right-hander was roughed up in his first start of the season against the Dodgers, but has since allowed just a single earned run across 12.0 innings with 12 strikeouts. As for the Twins, they’ll be relying on J.A. Happ, who’s sporting a 5.97 expected ERA through a pair of outings. With the A’s owning a 122 wRC+ against LHPs in 2021, I think it’s clear they have the advantage in this matchup.
Obviously there’s a little bit of risk here, as the Cardinals will bat first as the road team and the Nationals will be missing Juan Soto, but this is a play that essentially boils down to trusting Max Scherzer. After allowing all of the home runs in his first three innings on Washington’s augmented Opening Day, the veteran has been as dominant as you would expect. In fact, across his past 16.0 frames, Scherzer has struck out 19 opponents and surrendered just a single earned run. Now he’ll face a St. Louis lineup that has had far more success versus LHPs than RHPs. Still, that’s only half the equation. The Nationals also need to score early. Thankfully, Carlos Martinez has been rather generous to begin the season. Among qualified pitchers, Martinez has conceded the fourth-most barrels per plate appearance (11.8%) and he possesses the 10th-worst expected wOBA (.444). Washington should be able to find the scoreboard.
Obviously there’s many reasons to assume that this game is going to be low-scoring. Coming into Wednesday’s slate, the Cubs own the lowest batting average in all of baseball (.189), while the Mets have by far the lowest isolated power (.105). It’s also going to be a horrendous day in Chicago, with snow and rain and fog — not exactly ideal hitting conditions. Still, at this line, you’d think the pitching matchup was Jacob deGrom versus Kyle Hendricks. Let me assure you, you didn’t read the schedule wrong, it remains Zach Davies going up against David Peterson. Davies has surrendered 13 earned runs over his opening 11.1 innings of 2021, resulting in an ugly 6.03 xFIP. Meanwhile, despite a great outing last week, Peterson sports an expected ERA of 5.25. I’m not saying it’s going to be a barnburner, but I’ll take my chances at a number that should probably be at least a run higher.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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