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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 20

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Not only is it a 13-game slate but it’s April 20th. Add witty comments here.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Shohei Ohtani, $7,500, Los Angeles Angels (-200) vs. Texas Rangers (+170) — The biggest favorite of the night also features a pitcher that’ll be limited to 75 pitches. Shohei Ohtani ($7,500) will be making his second start of the season and is expected to be pulled around 75 pitches. In his first start against the White Sox, which was back on April 4, Ohtani went 4 2/3 innings allowing three runs (one earned) on two hits with seven strikeouts and five walks. The Rangers showed some signs of life offensive last night but still have just a .297 wOBA, a .127 ISO and a 29.8% K% against righties. It should be noted that Ohtani is not expected to bat in this game, as manger Joe Maddon said “just in case something went awry early and we had to scramble with a short bench.” Nonetheless, I don’t hate using Ohtani, even on the short leash, especially at his $7,500 salary.

Other notable favorite: Zack Wheeler ($9,800; -175) vs. San Francisco Giants

Highest Projected Total

Houston Astros (-136; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+117; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — The news surrounding this game is that the Astros are expected to get back the majority of their starters, including Alex Bregman ($5,400), Yordan Alvarez ($5,000) and Martín Maldonado ($3,300). Omitted from that list is Jose Altuve ($5,200) who looks as if he needs more time. Nonetheless, it’s a desperately needed injection of life into this dead Astros offense that has averaged 2.6 runs over the last three games.

The Astros are favored against Jon Gray ($7,300), who has pitched very well in three starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Two of those starts came at home, in which he went a combined 11 23 innings allowing just two runs on six hits and 12 strikeouts. I’m not necessarily looking to get Gray in my lineup but it’s a really, really interesting spot against a team that has struggled offensively and getting back starters that have been sidelined. At least to this point, his 3.35 FIP shows that he is pitching as well as the results show.

Meanwhile, Luis Garcia ($7,700) will be making a spot start in place of Lance McCullers. Garcia has only pitched twice against the Tigers and Angels but his matchup against this putrid Rockies lineup is intriguing. Even at home this season, while the Rockies have a decent .306 wOBA, the 64 wRC+ is the second-lowest in the league.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Gyroball [$100K to 1st]

Weather Notes

Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics - 15mph winds blowing out toward right field.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers - Potential for some light rain all throughout the evening.

Splits to Start

These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Taijuan Walker, .370, 6.43
Jake Arrieta, .370, 5.60
Tyler Anderson, .365, 4.40

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Hyun-Jin Ryu, .249, 2.96
Brad Keller, .263, 4.30
Corbin Burnes, .263, 2.02

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Michael Fulmer, .592, 12.19
Patrick Corbin, .370, 4.46
Logan Webb, .363, 4.35

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Brad Keller, .190, 2.16
Corbin Burnes, .207, 2.06
Taijuan Walker, .234, 3.38

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $6,600 — This is just such a ridiculous salary for Castillo. I know what day it is and you aren’t bugging out, he really is $6,600. Yes, his overall stats look ugly, allowing 14 runs (12 earned) on 19 hits through 15 13 innings. Nearly half of those numbers, however, came in his first start against the Cardinals when he was tagged for 10 runs (eight earned) on eight hits in 3 13 innings. Since then he’s thrown 12 innings allowing four runs on 11 hits with 12 strikeouts. Now he faces a Diamondbacks team that with a .291 wOBA, a .150 ISO, an 80 wRC+ and a 24.6% K% against righties. I simply cannot get away from the fact that Castillo is this cheap in a great matchup.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers $4,800 — If you bat left-handed and you’re facing Jordan Lyles ($6,700) I’m putting you in my lineup. To be fair, Lyles is a total disaster no matter who he faces but lefties in particular have hit him extremely hard. Dating back to last season, Lyles has allowed a .342 wOBA, a 5.23 FIP, a 1.3 HR/9 and 33.6% hard-hit rate. Then we have ol’ Jared Walsh, who since last season has a .442 ISO, a .453 wOBA and a 197 wRC+ against righties. Not much to think about here for someone who is eligible at both first base and outfield.

Save Big by Drafting

Corey Dickerson, Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles $3,100 — Dickerson is still so cheap on the season and I’m going to keep playing this man until it changes. The power hasn’t come yet but for someone that is hitting leadoff, not much to like. Sure, Matt Harvey ($5,700) is trying to fool everyone that “he’s back” by pitching decent for the Orioles, but I’m not falling for this mirage! Lefties have and will continue to be a problem for him and I refuse to believe otherwise. His .256 wOBA against them so far is great but that 4.59 FIP says otherwise. Give me Dickerson with his .345 wOBA and 121 wRC+ as a leadoff hitter this season.

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