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Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons, $10,900
Last night, Westbrook went nuts for 69.25 DKFP in an overtime victory against the Pelicans. This marked his sixth effort of over 60 DKFP in his past seven starts, and his price has actually come down $100 since Friday.
Assuming the 32-year-old isn’t rested after logging 44 minutes last night, Westbrook will be a core play for this small five-game slate. The Pistons have given up the sixth-most DKFP per game to opposing point guards over their past 10, and Westbrook only needs 54.5 DKFP to reach five-times value, which is something he has accomplished in 16 of his past 20 contests.
Other Options: Chris Paul ($8,000), Kemba Walker ($6,900)
Coby White, Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, $5,200
The status of Tomas Satoransky ($5,300; back) is something we need to monitor closely today. If the guard is unavailable, White will be a lock with Zach LaVine (health protocols) already ruled out. With the pair of guards inactive on Friday, White got the start and looked like the promising young talent that we saw for most of last season, recording 45.25 DKFP in 33.2 minutes vs. the Grizzlies.
When both Satoransky and LaVine have been off the floor so far in 2020-21, White’s usage has increased to 27.9%, pushing him to 1.0 DKFP per minute. His salary is very reasonable, and White would be a very attractive combination of safety and upside if Satoransky is unable to suit up.
Other Options: Cameron Payne ($3,500), Killian Hayes ($3,400, if Cory Joseph is out)
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons, $8,700
If Beal isn’t given this second night of a back-to-back off, this is a solid price tag for the shooting guard. Since returning from a one-game absence due to the back injury, Beal is scoring 43.75 DKFP per game and the Pistons have been an above-average matchup for shooting guards, yielding the 10th-most DKFP to the position.
While I think there are better expensive choices for cash games, paying up at shooting guard will naturally be contrarian tonight, making Beal an interesting GPP play for this short slate.
Other Options: Collin Sexton ($7,500)
Jevon Carter, Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs, $3,100
As of late, the Suns have relied on Carter as one of their primary reserves, and the veteran has responded with at least 20 DKFP in three of his past four tilts. His workload has been at 19.5 minutes per game during this time, and considering all four of these were wins for Phoenix, Carter should maintain this role tonight vs. the Spurs.
Opposing point guards have exposed San Antonio for the fifth-most DKFP per game this season, and while his upside isn’t the greatest, Carter is a viable punt to consider at a near minimum $3,100 price tag.
Other Options: Marcus Smart ($6,300), Dillon Brooks ($5,400)
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors, $8,300
In their final matchup of the season against the rival Lakers, Brown cooked the purple and gold for 56.25 DKFP in the Staples Center on Thursday night. He was one rebound shy of a double-double and garnered a 36.5% usage rate with Evan Fournier (health and safety protocols) and Robert Williams (knee) both absent.
Both of these players will remain sidelined for Saturday’s primetime matchup with a Warriors team that has won four in a row as they chase a playoff spot. The Celtics are also hot, the winners of five straight, and this should be a very tight affair from start to finish. In the last 10 Celtics’ tilts that have been decided by single digits, Brown is amassing 44.6 DKFP per game, and the All-Star is rating as one of the better forward values on the slate.
Other Options: Khris Middleton ($8,400)
Pat Connaughton, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $4,300
With Donte DiVincenzo (toe) missing from action Thursday, Connaughton was the main beneficiary, finishing with 26.75 DKFP across 26 minutes off the bench. The toe injury will keep DiVincenzo out again Saturday, which should result in 25-30 minutes for Connaughton against a Grizzlies unit that is 21st in defensive rating for the month of April.
Memphis specifically struggles to defend opposing wings, and when the Bucks faced this Grizzlies squad back on March 4, Connaughton contributed 31.3 DKFP.
Other Options: Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,000, if active), Saddiq Bey ($5,200), Kent Bazemore ($5,100, if Oubre Jr. is out)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $10,600
Antetokounmpo (knee) returned to the court on Thursday after missing six straight, but only played 25 minutes and scored 30.25 DKFP. There was no word of a minutes limit heading into this win against the Hawks, and I highly doubt we get any word of a restriction again tonight.
This makes Antetokounmpo a GPP play only, but a very appealing one, given the tremendous upside the reigning two-time MVP has if he is a full go. This season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 56.8 DKFP per game, and in the lone matchup in which he faced the Grizzlies, he collected 57.8 DKFP.
Other Options: Jayson Tatum ($9,500), Draymond Green ($7,300)
Juan Toscano-Anderson, Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics, $3,600
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,000; wrist, questionable) may be back tonight, but James Wiseman (knee) is done for the season, and Toscano-Anderson should still see a solid role vs. the Celtics. Thursday night, the 28-year-old was a huge part of the Warriors securing the win over the Cavs, tallying 38.25 DKFP across 31 minutes.
While this minute total will almost certainly decrease if Oubre Jr. is active, I still believe Steve Kerr will use Toscano-Anderson for 20-25 minutes against this Boston team that should be forced to use smaller lineups with Williams sidelined. When given nothing less than 20 minutes this year, Toscano-Anderson is generating 24.7 DKFP per game, and while many more values could open up near roster lock, the forward is one of the better punts available as of early Saturday morning.
Other Options: Kevin Love ($6,500), Thaddeus Young ($5,800), Jae Crowder ($4,600)
Nikola Vucevic, Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, $9,800
As expected, Vucevic took over the Bulls’ offense last night with LaVine in quarantine, supplying 53.5 DKFP in 33 minutes vs. the Grizzlies. He saw a 30.7% usage rate and in total, the center is producing a team-high 1.5 DKFP per minute when LaVine is off the floor.
With the Cavs surrendering the 15th-most DKFP to centers this season, this is an average matchup for Vucevic, but the big man is scoring 52.5 DKFP per game at home since joining the Bulls, and beating his current price point shouldn’t be a difficult task considering how efficient he has been sans LaVine. After Westbrook, Vucevic is my favorite stud target to utilize for Saturday night’s small slate.
Other Options: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,900), Jarrett Allen ($7,600), Deandre Ayton ($6,800)
Tristan Thompson, Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors, $4,500
The Celtics will be without Williams for the second straight game, keeping Thompson as the club’s starting center. With the spot start on Thursday, Thompson delivered 30 DKFP across 25 minutes in the tough matchup vs. the Lakers, who are the top defense in terms of efficiency this season.
Saturday night presents a much friendlier spot against the Warriors, who are allowing opposing centers to score DFKP at the fifth-highest rate in the NBA across their past 10. Thompson should find himself in the 25-30 minute range in this plus matchup and in the 14 contests he has topped 25 minutes since joining the Celtics, the center is amassing 25 DKFP per game.
Other Options: Daniel Theis ($4,000), Daniel Gafford ($3,500)
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