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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 16

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

These are the type of slates I love. A massive 14-game slate is on tap for tonight. Thanks for reading my intro.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

Editor’s Note: Tonight’s games between NYM/COL, TOR/KC and CWS/BOS have been postponed due to inclement weather.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jacob deGrom, $11,000, New York Mets (-335) vs. Colorado Rockies (+260) — Thanks to postponements during the Phillies series, we now get to see deGrom pitch at Coors Field and probably not get any run support. As has been the case numerous times during his career, deGrom has received a total of three runs of support this season in two starts. The Mets have lost both of his games and continue to hate their ace, at least offensively.

This is the first time we’ve seen deGrom pitch at Coors field since 2018 and only his second overall. Naturally, done well in those starts, allowing four runs on nine hits with 10 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings. Overall, the Rockies continue to be one of the best teams to target against from a fantasy sense, as they have a .268 wOBA, a .165 ISO and just a 53 wRC+ against righties. Strikeouts have been there for the taking as well with a 25.7% K%. Unfortunately, it continues to be hard to back deGrom, who is always a huge favorite, as the underdogs always come out on top. Not saying the Rockies are because they’re horrendous but man, just get this man some run support.

Other notable favorite: Max Scherzer ($10,400; -200) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Highest Projected Total

Chicago White Sox (-110; 5.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-110; 4.5 runs) 10.5 runs — Both teams are -110 on the moneyline for tonight but the White Sox have the higher projected team total of 5.5 runs. Do with that as you please.

A few factors to consider for this game, which really has me torn about the total. First and foremost, it’s pouring in Boston early (can confirm by looking out my window) but should lighten up around first pitch. The last effect will be the wind, which will be blowing in from left field at 17mph. So keep an eye on those factors

Second, both starters haven’t been all that bad. Dylan Cease ($6,300) and Nick Pivetta ($6,600) have both pitched well to start the season. Granted, both players are facing offenses that are red hot, as both teams are averaging over five runs per game. Obviously, something has to give in this game but it’s worth noting. At least in the past, both pitchers have been ones we’ve targeted against. Pivetta had a 5.68 FIP back in 2019 with the Phillies while Cease had a 6.36 FIP last season. Finally, both bullpens have been strong to start the season, so if these starters pitch as they have, it could end up being a tough go to hit the over. Lots to consider and quite frankly, a total I’ll be staying away from.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]

Weather Notes

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees - Light rain that’ll clear up early. Winds blowing OUT toward left at 12mph.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals - Winds blowing IN from left at 12mph.

Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox - Light rain throughout the evening. Winds will be a potential big factor in this one, blowing IN from left field at 17mph.

Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals - Potential for light rain throughout the game.

New York Mets at Colorado Rockies - Potential for snow (!) or a mix of rain.

Splits to Start

These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Frankie Montas, .444, 6.41
Adrian Houser, .421, 6.96
Anthony DeSclafani, .415, 6.55

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Urquidy, .174, 3.48
Walker Buehler, .240, 3.40
Mike Minor, .261, 3.52

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Martinez, .469, 7.49
Steven Matz, .448, 8.94
Michael Wacha, .445, 6.43

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .221, 1.50
Frankie Montas, .252, 3.49
Jose Urena, .258, 4.45

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Anthony DeSclafani, San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, $8,100 — Probably not the man you were expecting to be written up here. However, I think this is a really great spot for DeSclafani in Miami. The Marlins currently rank 26th against the fastball and 19th against the slider, two pitches DeSclafani throws the most. Through his two starts, he’s thrown both pitches a combined 72.3% of the time. Add into the mix that the Marlins simply aren’t hitting righties with a .290 wOBA, a .103 ISO and a 26.5% K%, what’s not to like?

To be fair, DeSclafani hasn’t been someone we could trust consistently and his struggles against lefties are profound. Fortunately for him and us, the Marlins are a VERY right-handed heavy team. The most lefties we’ve seen in the Marlins lineup has been three and that’s only because of pitchers, as both Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers bat lefty. Aside from that, the Marlins have no more than two position players hitting from the left side.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians, $5,500 — When he’s not too busy flexing on people, Castellanos has been doing his part at the plate. Coming into this game, he’s averaging 10.3 DKFP on the season and 8.9 DKFP over his last 10 games. In that span, he’s produced six extra base hits, including three home runs and knocked in six. Tonight, he’ll face Logan Allen ($8,400), who is a left-handed pitcher. Castellanos has feasted on lefties and last season had a .255 ISO against them. This offense continues to to motor along and with a number of bats hitting lefties well, Castellanos should be in a position to hit with men on base.

Save Big by Drafting

Colin Moran, Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, $3,500 — Moran and the Pirates let me down big time yesterday, as I was a fan of them to go over the 3.5 team total. They scored three runs, which is not how you win the bet. Anyways, tonight they face off against Adrian Houser ($7,600), who has some REALLY bad numbers against lefties. Last season, Houser had a putrid .421 wOBA, a 6.96 FIP and seven of the eight home runs he allowed. Then we have Moran, who’ll be batting cleanup tonight, with his .387 wOBA, a .206 ISO and a 143 wRC+ in the early going against righties. For me, this is one of the easiest values to scoop up.

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