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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 15

Steve Buchanan breaks down Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Thursday doesn’t feature a big slate with only five games. Still, I will talk about those five games.

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Editor’s Note: Blue Jays SP Anthony Kay will start tonight’s game vs. the Royals.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Julio Urias, $10,100, Los Angeles Dodgers (-295) vs. Colorado Rockies (+235) — The Dodgers are just making a mockery of the Rockies organization at this point, as they’ve already won five of the six games against them thus far. Per the usual, they’re once again massive favorites as Urias gets his second look at this team. In that first game, he tossed seven strong innings, allowing just one run on three hits and striking out six, good for 27.4 DKFP. As you’d expect, the Rockies offensive numbers are nothing special against lefties with a .323 wOBA, a .151 ISO, an 87 wRC+ and a 21.6% K%.

Despite the heavy juice, the Dodgers have been one of the safest teams to bet on, as they’re now 10-2 on the year and have an average margin of victory at 2.7 runs, the largest in the league. The Dodgers also have the second best record on the run line at 8-4, covering by an average of +1.2 runs. Getting them at -1.5 is currently set on DraftKings Sportsbook at -129.

Other notable favorite: Rich Hill ($9,000; -200) vs. Texas Rangers

Highest Projected Total

Detroit Tigers (+140; 3.5 runs) at Oakland Athletics (-167; 4.5 runs) 8.5 runs — Four of the five games are on the board this morning as I write this. The only exception being the Blue Jays at Royals, as Tanner Roark is being moved to a long relief role instead of starting today. Thus, all the available games had a projected total of 8.5 runs. This game had the most “juice” on the over at -110 so this is what we’ll chat about.

The Tigers might be the underdogs in this one but I like their chances against Sean Manaea ($7,400). He’s only faced the Astros in his two starts and had mixed results, going a combined 10 23 innings allowing six runs on 12 hits with eight strikeouts. The Tigers haven’t seen many lefties thus far, but last season they were a legitimate offense against them. Guys like Jeimer Candelario ($4,000), Jonathan Schoop ($3,400) and Niko Goodrum ($3,300) all had impressive power against lefties. Manaea is no stranger to giving up extra base hits and his 5.20 FIP is nothing to be bragging about either. I like the Tigers to go over the 3.5 run total in this one.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]

Weather Notes

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals- 13mph winds blowing IN from left field.

Splits to Start

These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jakob Junis, .430, 6.99
Sean Manaea, .318, 4.69

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Julio Urias, .212, 3.87
Merrill Kelly, .227, 3.74

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tarik Skubal, .374, 6.71
Patrick Corbin, .370, 4.46
Jakob Junis, .354, 5.13

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Austin Gomber, .237, 2.37
Rich Hill, .274, 3.87
Julio Urias, .288, 3.66

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies, $10,100 — I wish I had a better answer for you at SP1 tonight but I don’t. I wanted to really look at Patrick Corbin ($7,800) in a potential bounce-back spot against the Diamondbacks but they’re a good hitting club against the slider, which Corbin threw 40% of the time last season. With that said, Urias is going to be the mega chalk at pitcher and that’s simply how the slate is going to go. It’s not like he isn’t in a great spot against the Rockies but he’s realistically going to be rostered in 75% of lineups (I’m probably being low too). Yipee.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies, $5,500 — Turner has been locked in since the season began and looks to continue that tonight against Austin Gomber ($6,900). Through two starts, Gomber has shown some really poor command, walking 11 (!) batters through just 9 13 innings. Putting men on base against this Dodgers team is less than an ideal strategy. Specifically for Turner, he’s always posted great numbers against lefties. Dating back to last season, Turner has a .364 wOBA with a .203 ISO and a 131 wRC+ against them.

Save Big by Drafting

Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics, $3,400 — As mentioned earlier, I love some of these value Tigers bats against Manaea tonight. Schoop is a great example of someone who has had success against lefties but is dirt cheap. At $3,400, Schoop brings some good pop in this matchup. Despite struggling overall in 2020, Schoop had a .376 wOBA with a .286 ISO and a 136 wRC+ in 2019 against lefties.

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