The name of this article is MLB Best Bets. So I will give you my best bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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I mean, how do you NOT target against Madison Bumgarner at this juncture? It’s getting really, really bad for him. Since he joined the Diamondbacks last season, Bumgarner has posted an overall .402 wOBA, a 6.99 FIP, a 2.7 HR/9 and allowed a 43.3% hard-hit rate. In 11 total starts, he’s allowed at least five runs in five of those games, literally almost half of his starts.
The A’s will will lose the DH with this being in a National League park, so it’ll likely be Seth Brown, who is a lefty to begin with, finding a spot on the bench. They’ll be very right-handed, which is the bane of Bumgarner’s existence at this point in his career. Since putting on D-Back uniform, specifically, righties tagged him for a .409 wOBA, a 7.58 FIP and a 46.3% hard-hit rate. It’s going to take something miraculous for Bumgarner to come out of this game unscathed. Even if he does, the D-Backs bullpen has been subpar at best and have a combined 4.30 FIP.
Admittedly, the elephant in the room is that the Giants have been one of the worst teams in the league thus far at hitting the over. They’re 2-7 coming into this game and failing to cover by almost two runs at -1.7. Not great, like, at all. The Reds are a completely different story, going 7-2 with the over and covering by +3.6 runs. That’s good, we like that. Now, I’m not going to sit here and spew “WELL THE REDS WILL DO IT ALL BY THEMSELVES” because we can’t realistically expect that. However, the Giants are a very underrated team against lefties and this is where I feel they’ll do their part to hit the over.
The Giants boast a TON of power against lefties. Four starters in their lineup, had an ISO of at least .290 last season! Wilmer Flores (.387), Austin Slater (.342) Mike Yastrzemski (.328) and Darin Ruf (.293). All had at least 49 plate appearances as well, so it’s not like it was a small sample (relative to the season). With Reds starter Wade Miley a contact pitcher, I like the chances here of grabbing some runs off him.
The Reds, meanwhile, have been an offensive juggernaut and now face Aaron Sanchez, who lacks command. Sanchez has a BB% of at least 11.2% in three straight seasons. Back in 2019 when he last pitched, with men on base, Sanchez had a .387 wOBA, a 6.10 FIP, an 11% BB% and a 1.3 HR/9. With an offense that is averaging a league-leading 7.3 runs per game, I love that the over/under is currently set at 8.5 runs.
The Blue Jays are hoping they can fix what is left of Robbie Ray’s career in Toronto. He’s consistently been a pitcher we target against from a daily and betting standpoint. To his credit, he had a very good spring, so maybe the Blue Jays DO have something here. However, until I see that in meaningful games, I’m going to keep betting against him.
The Yankees are not a team I would want to face if I’m a lefty. They have a ton of power to throw at them and as of right now, those bats are healthy. The biggest issue for Ray has been his command and home runs. Last season with the Diamondbacks and Jays, Ray had a ridiculous 18% BB%. Amongst qualified pitchers, that wasn’t just the highest in the league, it was highest by a LONG SHOT. Dylan Cease was second at 13.3%, for perspective. This Yankees lineup is not one you can afford to men on base with. With Gerrit Cole taking the mound and the idea the Yankees get to Ray early, I like taking them at -1.5.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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