Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Phillies vs. Braves Showdown on April 11

The Philadelphia Phillies swept the Atlanta Braves to start the season. On Sunday night, the Braves will look to return the favor. Atlanta’s bats were ice cold last week, only scoring three runs in the entire series, but they’re warming up this week (13 runs in two games against the Phillies). Their offensive production should continue versus Matt Moore ($14,700 CP; $9,800), but the Philadelphia bats should be able to respond. Drew Smyly ($15,900 CP; $10,600); is a decent pitcher, but the Phillies crush lefties.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $75K Sunday Night Showdown [$20K to 1st] (PHI vs ATL)

Captain’s Picks

Rhys Hoskins ($14,100 CP) - It’s a tough decision between Hoskins and Bryce Harper ($15,300 CP), but the platoon advantage favors Hoskins (vs. LHP — .520 wOBA, .431 ISO, 230 wRC+). The 2020 split stats are a small sample size, but over his career, Hoskins has a .390 wOBA and a .263 ISO against left handed pitching. Smyly was able to avoid the blow up in his 2021 debut by striking out right-handed batters, but that trick will not work on Hoskins (only a 12% K rate vs. LHP in 2020). When Smyly wasn’t missing right-handed bats, he allowed 40% hard contact and a 40% flyball rate. This matchup bodes well for a Hoskins home run.

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($16,200 CP) - Moore got yanked before turning into a gas can in his first outing. In three innings, he walked four batters and allowed an exit velocity of 92.4 mph with a launch angle of 15.3 degrees. That’s not the danger zone, but it’s close. Acuna doesn’t need Moore to be awful, he just needs Moore to be Moore. Over half of Acuna’s contact against left-handed pitching since last season has been hard contact (.377 wOBA, .182 ISO, 135 wRC+ vs. LHP). Moore leaned on his fastball 62% of the time in his first start, and it was a below average fastball (92 mph) at that. Last season, Acuna did not make a lot of contact with fastballs from LHP, but when he did, his hits had an exit velocity of 100.4 mph and a launch angle of 28 degrees. That’s a 400-plus-foot bomb in the making.

Value Plays

Andrew McCutchen ($7,000) - Unless there is a change in the projected lineup, with 2B/SS Ehire Adrianza ($6,000) getting a start, all of the value seems to be on the Philly side of the diamond. Smyly looked decent in his first game, but this Philadelphia lineup is not very forgiving. McCutchen has always hit left-handed pitching and last season was not any different (.391 wOBA, .261 ISO, 146 wRC+). Smyly isn’t an easy target, but at this price, DFS players are already getting a lot. McCutchen is hitting at the top of the order, he’s protected by good hitters, and he has the platoon advantage.

Jean Segura ($6,800) - DFS players can target a bullpen arm, fade a top-tier play or roster Segura. Statistically, there is nothing great about Segura, but there’s nothing seriously wrong, either. He’s competent and he gets at-bats in a good lineup. If he can get on base, he has a decent chance of scoring. The same can be said about the back end of the Braves’ lineup, but there aren’t any bargains on that side. Segura has a hit in five out of eight games, and he’s high enough up in the order that he should step into the box with ducks on the pond.

Fades

Drew Smyly ($15,900 CP; $10,600) - Smyly earned a quality start his first time out against a Nationals offense that wasn’t at full strength because of their COVID issues. Eight Nationals struck out against Smyly and five fell prey to his frequently used curveball. The spin rate on his curveball is unspectacular, but with curveballs a high spin rate is not always necessary. His curveball and fastball had about equal spin rates in his first start, and this might have thrown the Nationals’ hitters off. Still, that’s just one game against an offense that sat around for a week. Over Smyly’s career, he’s had average to below-average stuff, and today he faces a lineup that can crush left-handed pitching. This is too risky at his price.

The Outcome

The Braves’ bats are alive and they’re facing a pitcher that had to go to Japan to get a contract last season. It’s a foregone conclusion that the Braves will put runs on the board, but can Smyly keep the Phillies off of the basepaths? Smyly struck out 10 batters and walked only one in his final two spring starts, and he struck out eight Nationals in his season debut. It’s hard to say anything bad about the present iteration of Smyly, but the Phillies’ lineup is no walk in the park. This will be a real test, and it’s hard to imagine that Smyly aces this one.

Final Score: Braves 6, Phillies 5

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $75K Sunday Night Showdown [$20K to 1st] (PHI vs ATL)

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