Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Bucks vs. Lakers Showdown on March 31

As with all Showdown slates involving the Los Angeles Lakers the past couple of weeks, things are not going to be easy when it comes to tonight’s matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks. Not only are the Lakers massive underdogs on the DraftKings Sportsbook, but the newly acquired Andre Drummond ($8,600) will be making his debut, sending ripples throughout the rotation.

How does that wrinkle effect your lineup strategy? Let’s dive in and break it all down.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (MIL vs LAL)

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Captain’s Picks

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($16,500 CP) - Obviously, this has a chance to backfire if the game script gets completely lopsided in the first three quarters, yet I have to admit that I was expecting to see Giannis’ base price closer to $12K. That’s not to suggest that Antetokounmpo is cheap on this evening’s slate, but it does almost seem like the blowout potential is already baked into his salary. The reigning MVP has failed to reach even 40.0 DKFP in two of his past three starts; however, this recent dry spell comes after a stretch of play that saw Antetokounmpo exceed 57.0 DKFP in six-straight contests. You know the ceiling is there. We’re talking about the viability of an asset averaging 1.53 DKFP per minute so far in March, even with the inclusion of an underwhelming week. I think we get a bounce-back performance on Wednesday.

Dennis Schroder ($11,700 CP) - With LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (calf) out, three men have seen their roles increase in huge ways: Schroder, Kyle Kuzma ($8,400) and Montrezl Harrell ($8,200). With Drummond’s workload a mystery, that trio of assets are essentially the best options for a Captain from the Lakers’ roster. Of the three, I believe Schroder has the most compelling case. Not only is the guard cheaper than both his teammates, but he’s led Los Angeles in DKFP per game (42.6), usage rate (27.9%) and assist rate (40.7%) going back across its past three contests. I think it’s also crucial to note that Schroder stands to lose the least with the incoming presence of Drummond, as Kuzma and Harrell derive much of their value through rebounding. Heck, I doubt Drummond and Harrell will ever be sharing the court, so the former Clipper will likely see his minutes capped.

Value UTIL Plays

Brook Lopez ($6,200) - Lopez is in a bit of a dangerous spot. The big man is averaging a respectable 0.9 DKFP per minute dating back to the beginning of February, yet his role tends to fluctuate so wildly from night-to-night that it’s seemingly impossible to ever feel confident about rostering the former All-Star. However, with the presence of both Drummond and Harrell on the other side — two centers who can score with their back to the basket — I get the sense that Lopez will be busy this evening. If that’s the case, this price tag is far too low. In the last four games Lopez has logged at least 30 minutes, he’s registered 37.0 DKFP, 30.5 DKFP, 30.25 DKFP and 43.25 DKFP.

Bryn Forbes ($2,200) - I don’t want to make Forbes into something he isn’t, but on a slate that is severely lacking in extreme value options, the guard’s modest price point makes him somewhat interesting. In the last four games he’s played, Forbes is logging a respectable 24.9 minutes of action per contest. It’s also a span where he’s averaging 15.0 DKFP. That might not seem all that impressive, but if Forbes were to hit that threshold once again on Wednesday, he’s be looking at 7x value.

Fades

Montrezl Harrell ($8,200)/Markieff Morris ($5,600) - As I eluded to above, this all comes down to Drummond making his Lakers debut this evening. It remains to be seen how many minutes the former lottery pick will be able to handle against the Bucks — Drummond hasn’t played in an NBA game since Feb. 12 — but I’d wager it’ll be enough to drastically cut into the recent roles that both Harrell and Morris have been enjoying. Heck, even if Drummond’s only able to fill Marc Gasol’s ($3,400) usual 15-20 minutes, he’ll be doing so with a usage rate that’s three-times higher. I do believe that Harrell still has the capacity to co-exist with Drummond, as the 27-year-old tends to be hyper-efficient in his reserve opportunities, but in this new environment with new uncertainty, it’s simply hard to stomach a salary over $8K. Schroder and Kuzma are better plays.

THE OUTCOME

The Bucks have been pretty underwhelming as of late. Not only has a team that’s tended to dominate the regular season managed just a +2.2 net rating so far in March, but Milwaukee’s failed to cover seven of it’s last eight road games. Still, Los Angeles is also reeling, and recent wins over a Cleveland squad missing Collin Sexton and a Orlando squad that traded everybody aren’t exactly inspiring. Looking to rebound from a tough loss on Monday, give me the Bucks, who the Lakers will struggle to keep pace with in the scoring department.

Final Score: Milwaukee 117, Los Angeles 104

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (MIL vs LAL)

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