It’s THE PLAYERS Championship week, and with it comes 48 of the top 50 golfers looking to take home the trophy and one of the largest purses on the PGA TOUR. TPC Sawgrass has played host to the PLAYERS since 1982, and some golfers in the field have a lot of experience here. Like a Major tournament, the DraftKings pricing released earlier than usual, so we’ve had a couple more days to generate community sentiment on certain players.
This week, we should be cautious of rostering the chalk on golfers who’ve played well here in the past but haven’t been playing well lately; course experience (amount of starts) matters a little more than course history (success) this week when looking at past results. Similarly, golfers who’ve not played well recently but have a lot of experience at TPC Sawgrass may be going overlooked and should be some contrarian targets in DraftKings GPP tournaments.
Course history, current form, or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected DraftKings ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in GPPs on DraftKings.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to DraftKings Preview and the Best Bets articles on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]
$10,000+ Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Jon Rahm ($10,900)
Pivot: Dustin Johnson ($11,200)
Most of the roster percentage looks like it should evenly distribute at the top, and objectively, all four golfers are good plays here. Rahm is projecting to be the highest rostered, and he’s been playing great, but Johnson is playing on another level.
Yes, he’s the most expensive, so we’re not saving money.
Yes, he lost 10 strokes putting at the WGC-Workday Championship, his worst outing since 2013 and maybe ever.
Still, the potential of getting DJ at a depressed roster percentage in his 12th start here (not counting last year) might feel like a “steal” halfway through the tournament when he’s running away with it. Rory McIlroy ($10,600) is terrific on Pete Dye courses, but so is DJ, ranking second in DraftKings scoring on Dye courses over the previous 50 rounds.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Patrick Cantlay ($9,200)
Pivot: Sungjae Im ($8,300)
Cantlay is another player, like Rahm, who should do well here and was featured in the DraftKings Preview article earlier this week. He is projecting to be the highest rostered player on the slate with how well he sets up and how much he’s been talked about this week. A recent WD before the WGC-Workday Championship, a couple of forgettable final-round showings this year and only three previous starts here might be a few things you could pin on Patrick as (small) red flags.
Sungjae has lost irons in three-straight events leading into THE PLAYERS, but this is a Florida course, and Im is always worth consideration in the Sunshine State. Yes, he’s only got one start here, and it was a missed cut nonetheless. We should be in on Im, who’s played well in his first couple of starts/debuts on courses that demand course experience.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Abraham Ancer ($7,500)
Pivot: Sergio Garcia ($7,500)
Ancer had a good outing at the WGC-Workday Championship, finishing with a top 20, gaining seven strokes tee-to-green. A couple of weeks before, Ancer finished with a top 5 at The Amex and was in 25.4% of DraftKings GPP lineups, according to FantasyNational.com. The sentiment for Ancer is frothy, and like Cantlay, Abe was in the DraftKings Preview article as someone to target.
Someone to consider other than Ancer is Sergio Garcia, with how much experience he has around this course. He’s only missed one cut in his previous 18 starts, won in 2008, has a couple of runner-up finishes and a handful of top 10s. Sergio ranks 12th in SG: Total here since 2016 and is striking the ball consistently, ranking 16th in SG: Tee-to-Green over his previous 24 rounds.
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