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One of the quirks of this truncated NBA regular season is the mini two-game series that teams have been playing throughout the year. We’ll get another one of those this evening, as the Los Angeles Clippers take the court against the Dallas Mavericks for the second time in three days.
Will everything play out to a similar script? Or will the Mavericks avenge Monday’s 109-99 loss? Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (LAC vs DAL)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Luka Doncic ($19,800 CP) - It is understandably difficult to envision spending almost 40% of your salary cap on a single player, yet there’s a reason why Doncic’s hype train is chugging along at such an intense pace. The guard is just an incredible player and his impact on a fantasy slate can’t be overlooked. For instance, across Doncic’s past 15 games, the All-Star has managed to exceed 60.0 DKFP eight times, a stretch that includes a 68.5 DKFP triple-double performance against this very same Clippers squad less than 48 hours ago. Doncic is also sitting third in average time of possession (9.0 minutes), sixth in points (29.6) and ninth in potential assists (15.6) within that run of starts, showcasing his massive volume potential. I truly believe there’s enough value on this slate to stomach this hefty price tag.
Kawhi Leonard ($16,500 CP) - Generally, it’s hard to distinguish the “value” between Leonard and Paul George ($10,200), as the duo have relatively similar fantasy profiles and tend to shoulder similar workloads for the Clippers. However, if recent performance is any indication of what we’ll see tonight, choosing a Captain from the pair should be quite simple. To be blunt, George is in a bit of a slump across his past eight starts. In fact, going back to Feb. 23, the forward is shooting a paltry 40.6% from the field and averaging a mere 1.12 DKFP per minute — that’s not going to cut it at a five-figure salary. Leonard, on the other hand, is just as consistent as ever. The former Finals MVP is averaging 51.0 DKFP in the last 16 contests he’s logged at least 34 minutes and, for the season as a whole, he’s yet to register fewer than 30.0 DKFP in a game. Basically, as long as tonight’s script doesn’t get wonky, Leonard will be a cost-effective asset.
Value UTIL Plays
Editor’s Note: Clippers C Serge Ibaka (back) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Mavericks.
Ivica Zubac ($5,400) - This is a pretty cut and dry situation to handle if Serge Ibaka ($6,800; back) is unavailable for a second-straight contest. On Monday, Zubac logged nearly 35 minutes of action, eventually finishing that contest with 32.75 DKFP and a double-double of 15 points and 11 rebounds. It was the sixth time since the beginning of February that Zubac had seen at least 25 minutes and, in those six opportunities, the center has averaged a whopping 35.0 DKFP. Considering how big Dallas likes to play, Zubac is almost a necessity if Ibaka get ruled out yet again.
Editor’s Note: Mavericks C Dwight Powell (illness) will be available for tonight’s game vs. the Clippers.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($1,400) - There’s nothing about Cauley-Stein that jumps off the page in this matchup, but he’s exactly the type of extreme value asset that can balance out Doncic’s insane salary. The big man has registered at least 12.0 DKFP in each of his last three games, and he’s coming off logging over 16 minutes in this same matchup on Monday. If Dwight Powell ($2,000; illness) ends up being active, you can easily pivot to the Canadian; however, in an ideal world, Powell remains sidelined and Cauley-Stein has an opportunity to reach something like 10x value.
Fades
Paul George ($10,200) - Unless you’re willing to Captain someone like the aforementioned Zubac — which isn’t actually too crazy — you’re going to have to fade one of the four players priced above $10K on this slate. To me, that means avoiding the scuffling George; though it’s honestly not like I’m all that enthused to use Kristaps Porzingis ($10,400), either, as he’s going up against a Los Angeles defense that’s surrendered the second-fewest DKFP to opposing power forwards. In any case, Doncic and Leonard are far and away the two best options in this pricing tier.
THE OUTCOME
While it’s always difficult to bet against a Clippers team that’s basically at full-strength, I think I like the Mavericks chances to take Wednesday’s contest. Dallas has a far better net rating than Los Angeles across it’s past 10 games, and the Mavericks are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their past five games following a straight up victory, and they’re just 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups on the road. Let’s ride with Luka.
Final Score: Dallas 111, Los Angeles 106
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (LAC vs DAL)
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