The Ducks have been the better of these two cellar dwellers most of the year as they come in with an expected goal rate around 45.7%, which is over 5% higher than the Sharks. Both teams have a negative nine goal differential on the year, but the Sharks have achieved that in three fewer games. Anaheim put up a solid effort against L.A. their last time out and have the deeper forward crew and better goalie. They should be bigger home favorites here so I like taking advantage.
The Bruins have beaten the Flyers in all three meetings between these teams thus far in 2021 and will look to go 4-0 Friday night. Philly was on a four-game win streak before blowing a lead late to Boston, who really hurt the Flyers on the power-play in that game. Home teams and teams that are in the back end of a two game series have win-rates of over 60% on the season and this plus-money offering on Philly feels like an overreaction to the previous games. The Flyers went 3-1 against the Bruins last year and don’t deserve to be this big of an underdog at home.
Top Line Stacks
Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers
Matt Duchene ($4,500) – Filip Forsberg ($5,500) – Mikael Granlund ($4,200)
The Predators and the Panthers meet tonight in the second-end of a two-game set. The Preds offense came to life last night in a 6-5 OT win and it was marked by a four-goal eight point effort by their top-line. It may feel like chasing points to go back to them but this team/line does feel like it’s in for more positive regression. Nashville ranks just ninth in goals scored and are far behind last year’s 3.1 Goals per game pace. Additionally, we have a Florida team who’s a pretty solid matchup for DFS. They allow over 31 SOG per night while also featuring the 10th worst penalty-kill in the league.
The salaries we’re getting here on the Preds top-line make this chase worthwhile too. The price on Forsberg remains low due to his teams lack of offensive output, but he now enters with 11-points in 10-games and averaging 4 SOG per game, which are pretty elite fantasy numbers and makes him a great value at under 6k. For a player averaging 12.0 DKFP so far in 2021, Mikael Granlund also feels quite undervalued. This line has good upside potential and hasn’t seen their prices skyrocket yet, which makes them a good play to bet on for on some continuation here in game two.
Superstar to Target
Max Pacioretty, Vegas Golden Knights vs. L.A. Kings ($6,900)
Anytime you see Pacioretty under $7k in price you should heavily consider him as an anchor play and that principle applies very well tonight in a solid matchup with the Kings. L.A. ranks 10th in scoring chances allowed and have given up the ninth-most SOG per game (31.8), and are allowing nearly 3.0 SOG more than last season. For his part, Pacioretty is averaging 4.5 SOG per game and has started to pick it up in the points department of late. He’s coming off a hat-trick against St. Louis and yet is still available here at one of his lowest price points of the season—he’s been at 7k or more in five of his seven games on DraftKings this season. The Vegas power-play has underperformed in 2021 (only an 11% hit-rate thus far) but this is a talented unit that should show some positive regression soon. Getting a piece by taking the undervalued Pacioretty as your anchor makes sense here.
Value on Offense
Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks ($4,000)
As mentioned above, it’s more of a team effort for the Ducks when it comes to scoring and that means that some of their wingers can be had for cheap DraftKings salaries. Silfverberg enters this contest with the Sharks averaging over 16-minutes per game and right around 2.0 SOG per game. While his 6.7 DKFP average doesn’t stick out, the winger has picked up his play as of late and is averaging 8.5 DKFP over his last four games. He’s technically a third-liner but sees time on the PP1 for the Ducks which really ups his value. The matchup against the Sharks, who allow the second-most goals per game and eight-most SOG against per game, makes him a great value tonight.
Ryan Donato, San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks ($3,600)
The other side of the Ducks/Sharks game is worth targeting for some cheap value too. Donato is getting consistent top-6 minutes in the Sharks thin forward group and comes in averaging 9.6 DKFP per game. The former Wild player has now hit the SOG bonus twice in his last four games and is also seeing consistent time on the Sharks PP1, where two of his five points on the season have come. Considering the matchup with Anaheim, who has given up the third-most scoring chances against thus far, its hard to find better upside value on the wing tonight.
John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks ($7,800)
Gibson and the Ducks are small home favorites tonight but if you read my write-up above you’d know I think this is a better spot for them than the odds indicate. The Sharks actually attempt a decent number of shots per game (31.1—12th in the league) but they have only averaged 2.5 goals per game and are last in quality scoring chances created. For his part, Gibson has been very solid and comes in with a .924 save percentage and has already posted three games with 24 DKFP or more this year. He’s a good value in one of the best matchups a goalie could hope in fantasy.
Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers vs. Boston Bruins ($7,600)
Hart definitely has more bust potential than Gibson considering the matchup against the Bruins, who are averaging 4-goals scored over their last three games. That said, his salary here makes him a decent GPP target in my mind. This matchup has the potential for Hart to see a ton of shots against as the Flyers are allowing 33.8 SOG against per game (third most in the league) while the Bruins also sit fourth in SOG for per game. If you want to go for maximum upside Hart makes for a solid GPP play as the Flyers are only small home underdogs here and were playing well before a late game collapse their last time out against Boston.
Value on Defense
Cam Fowler, Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks ($3,500)
Fowler’s a nice $3K-play tonight against the weak Sharks defense. The offensive-minded D-man is averaging over 21-minutes per game and is seeing consistent power-play time as well. Fowler has been a consistent 30-point scorer over his career so we should expect his offensive output to click up a touch soon. All things considered, there won’t be many better matchups for Anaheim this year than the Sharks so if we’re ever going to take advantage of the cheap salaries attached to their players, this is likely the spot to do so. Don’t be shocked if the Ducks power-play comes to life here and don’t be afraid to take the cheap price here with Fowler who can even be stacked with one of their PP1 wingers if inclined to do so.
Roman Josi, Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers ($6,100)
I was ready to throw in the towel on Josi last week after he continued to remain sluggish, but with the Nashville offense coming to life last night against the Panthers, I think you need to give him another look here. The price we’re getting on him remains depressed over last season, when he was continually over $7K and most nights was the most-expensive defenseman on the slate. Even though his DK-production is down in 2021, he’s still averaging consistent ice-time at around 25 minutes per game, and averaging 3.4 SOG per game. If the Nashville power-play can find its footing soon he’ll be an absolute steal at this price. The matchup with the Panthers is a good place to start given they feature the 10th-worst penalty-kill.
Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights vs. L.A. Kings ($6,900)
As I mentioned above, you probably want some exposure to the Vegas power-play in this spot. The Kings sit third in the NHL right now in penalty-kill efficiency but were the eighth-worst team in that category last year so some regression is likely coming for that unit. Similarly, the Vegas power-play is hitting at around 12% right now, which is nearly 10% lower than their efficiency rate last year. Theodore is also #good and given the injury status of Alex Pietrangelo (questionable) he could be in line for more minutes in this game. Averaging a point-per-game thus far in 2021, and over 4-SOG, there’s not many defenseman who carry Theodore’s fantasy upside at the moment. Staring lineups with a Pacioretty and Theodore Vegas PP1 stack isn’t a bad way to go about roster building tonight.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.