Nobody wants the NFL season to end, but to help lessen the sting of that notion, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a FREE-to-play $55 Million 4th Quarter Prediction Pool. To participate, simply answer the 10 questions in the pool for your shot at the $1 million prize pool. Below, we’ll go over the questions you’ll be tasked with answering and some insight to help you make your selections.
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Big Game Playlist
Chiefs: Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (calf) ACTIVE
Buccaneers: WR Antonio Brown (knee), TE Cameron Brate (back) ACTIVE
Which team will score more points in the 4th quarter?
Both of these teams have found success in the fourth quarter this season. The Buccaneers averaged 8.5 points while the Chiefs weren’t far behind at 7.9 points. The 8.5 for the Buccaneers was one of the higher totals in the league, as only five teams averaged at least 8.5 points.
Going by the games lines on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bucs are +3 underdogs as of Thursday afternoon. If that game plays out as the lines indicate, the Buccaneers could be in a game script where they’re playing from behind and need points. With that said, in the five games the Bucs lost this season, they averaged just 6.6 points in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs, meanwhile, only had two losses under their belt, one of which was played without Patrick Mahomes. On the grandest stage of them all, I like Tom Brady playing from behind and putting up some points as the Bucs attempt a comeback.
1H in-game update:
1Q points - 10
2Q points - 17
Total points in the 4th quarter?
0-7, 8-15, 16-23, 24+
As I mentioned, these are two teams that have done well in the fourth quarter on offense. Combined, they averaged 16.4 points, which puts them in the 16-23 point range for our answer. With that in mind, 16-23 feels like a tough range of numbers to score from a football standpoint. Thus, the 8-15 answer is the selection I want to land on. This gives us a number of outs to hit, including if any team hits a two-point conversion. Two touchdowns, a touchdown and a field goal, two field goals and a touchdown, yada yada yada. You get the idea. While this will likely be a chalky answer, I think it’s also a safe one.
Will the 4th quarter two-minute warning happen at the two-minute mark?
Yes or No
I mean, what can I truly give for analysis on this? We don’t have trends or stats to go off on this, and I think I would border on insanity to try and come up with a way to figure this out. That would be a ton of work for an answer that has a 50/50 chance of happening. So here is my best guess, and we have zero information to back it up. Ready?
1H in-game update: Chiefs enter 3Q down by 15.
Will there be a successful two-point conversion in the 4th quarter.
Yes or No
These two teams combined for two successful two-point conversions this season, one coming from Travis Kelce and the other from Mecole Hardman. The Buccaneers were not successful during the season. In all, 62 two-point conversions were accomplished this season, which is quite minuscule in the grand scheme of scoring that occurs. Quite frankly, I don’t know WHY teams aren’t doing this more, but we’ll save that for another day.
With how much these teams won this season, going a combined 25-7 during the regular season, the need for a two-point conversion was not necessary. In fact, both teams averaged 0.2 two-point conversions per game, which was amongst the lowest in the league. For comparison, the Eagles averaged one per game (at least they did SOMETHING right) while the Bengals stood their ground and were the only team with none.
What will be the last play of the 4th quarter?
Kick or Punt, Run or Kneel, Pass, Any other outcome
I went back and looked at the last five Super Bowls to see what the final play of the game was. Run or Kneel was the play in three while Pass was at two. Surprisingly — and something that slipped my mind — Mahomes threw the ball for the final play last year as the Chiefs were on fourth and 25. Leading up to that, Mahomes has kneeled on the first three plays of that drive as the 49ers used up their time outs.
Run or kneel feels like the best play to select, although it can truly be any. As with all of these answers, you can select them all the way up to 11 p.m. ET, so it gives you a better idea of what COULD happen as the game progresses. Luckily for you guys, we’ll update this article as the game goes on as well.
Choice: Run or Kneel
1H in-game update:
Bucs are averaging 4.84 YPC on 13 carries through 1H
Chiefs are averaging 3.8 YPC on 5 carries through 1H
What will the longest rushing play of the 4th quarter be?
0-5 yards, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26+
This is a very interesting question to think about and the game script should be considered. For example, I’m a believer that the Chiefs win this game, so in that scenario, are the Buccaneers running in the fourth quarter? Likely not. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, who would be apt to run the clock down, could find it difficult to run against a very tough Buccaneers defense. When these teams met in Week 12, the Chiefs ran the ball 16 times and averaged just 3.6 YPC for a total of 59 yards. It’s proven that if you’re going to beat the Buccaneers, you’re not doing it on the ground. I’m going to take a more modest approach and go with 11-15 yards, giving us some wiggle room if the Chiefs running backs run for a first down in a potential clock-killing scenario.
1H in-game update:
Ronald Jones had 3 red zone rushes
Leonard Fournette had one red zone rush
Rob Gronkowski had two red zone targets; two touchdowns
Mike Evans had one red zone target
Antonio Brown had two red zone targets; one touchdown
Tyreek Hill had one red zone target
Travis Kelce had one red zone target
Which player will score the first rushing or receiving touchdown of the 4th quarter?
Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Other
These are two teams that like to throw in the red zone — hence why only one running back is listed as an answer for both teams. The other receivers listed top the highest targeted receivers in the red zone during the regular season. Kelce had a 26% share in the red zone followed by Hill at 21%. On the Bucs, Evans topped the team by a wide margin at 19.5% while Godwin was tied for third at 10.3%. For me, I’d roll with Evans here since he’s been the man Brady has trusted the most on the Bucs in this situation. Evans also has a huge height advantage on CB Bashaud Breeland — Evans is six inches taller. Never hurts to have that, especially in the red zone.
Choice: Mike Evans
How much time will be on the clock when the ball is snapped for the first kneel down of the 4th quarter?
1 minute or more, 0:59-0:45 seconds, 0:44-0:20, 19 seconds or less, no kneel down
Ok listen, I’ve answered a lot of wild questions on here. You’re on your own for this one. I’m not even going to pretend like I have a solid answer for you.
Choice: Readers' choice, wooooo! Go you!
1H in-game update:
Harrison Butker made a 49-yard and 34-yard field goal in 1H
What will be the longest attempted field goal in the 4th quarter?
17-33 yards, 34-50, 51+, No field goals kicked
Looking at the stats, the Buccaneers are more likely to make a field goal attempt over the Chiefs. The Bucs averaged 2.1 FGA per game, while the Chiefs were at 1.8. For reference, the Cowboys made the most attempts at 2.6 per game while the Packers made the least at 1.1. Again, this is totally open to how you think the game will play out, but I would side with the Bucs.
When it comes to distance, Harrison Butker is the safer option to go deep. He had five 50-plus-yard field goals. Where as Ryan Succop only had one. This had me landing in the 34-50 yards range, a distance both kicker excel in.
Choice: 34-50 yards
1H in-game update:
All three touchdowns were scored inside the red zone.
Will there be a 20+ yard touchdown in the 4th quarter?
Yes or No
This has been a popular question all throughout the season as DraftKings held the Big Play Payday promotions. If a 20-plus-yard touchdown was scored in the fourth quarter in a particular game, you would be entered into a freeroll contest! Easy peasy.
Of the touchdowns scored by both teams in the fourth quarter, 10 of them went for 20-plus yards of the 32 combined. That’s a 31% success rate on this question. I like taking yes on this because of the sheer amount of firepower on both sides and the speed. When we’re pitting the face of the league against the former, I have no doubt both will be looking to air it out. Give me the yes on this question.
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