It’s Thursday, which means we’ve got a short, yet fun six-game slate in the NBA, including a pair of nationally televised games which should certainly be worth watching. Let’s survey DraftKings Sportsbook for some player props, totals and sides to take on this slate. You can follow me on Twitter (@KennyDucey) for any late adds.
Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I’ve got news for you: Even before Kristaps Porzingis was listed as doubtful for this game, causing the line to fly towards Philly, who opened +1, I still liked the Sixers. They’ve seemed to figure things out of late, winning three out of four games, and they’ve been phenomenal this year at home with a 10-5 record against the spread. Dallas has been abused on the glass all season long with fourth-lowest rebound rate (48%), and rebounding is one of the things Philly does best. I think the Sixers dominate this game down low and also neutralize the Mavs’ only weapon in Luka Doncic with some stout defense from Ben Simmons.
The Knicks will likely be without starting point guard Elfrid Payton here, and when he’s been off the floor this season the biggest bump in usage (+2%) has gone to Randle. His assist rate has kicked up almost 2%, as well, and for the season he’s averaging a career-best 5.5 assists — a near two-assist improvement over his previous high. Randle has been asked to be the centerpiece of the Knicks’ offense, and without Payton, he should be leaned on a bit more to facilitate. The Kings, to make matters even better, are an atrocious defense, and are bottom-five against the three. That should improve the chances that the open men Randle finds will be able to knock down their shots. He’s coming off a seven-assist game against the Warriors, and I think he’ll be able to get near that mark again.
The Bucks have hit two-straight overs to put them sixth in the league in getting above the total, while the Pelicans remain ridiculous at hitting overs, going 23-8 to lead the NBA. In fact, they’ve hit the over in 10-straight. I get it, this total is insanely high, but I think we’ve still got a good chance. The Pelicans hold the second-best offensive rating over the past 10 games, but rank bottom 10 in pace; illustrating just how efficient they’ve been scoring the basketball, and how much they could score if the game were extended out. The Bucks are top-five in transition and pace, meaning they’ll be in control of this game and push the tempo. This should lead the Pelicans to an abundance of offensive possessions, which we know they’re great at capitalizing on.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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