It’s Tuesday, and we’ve got a thrilling six-game slate on tap in the NBA, including a couple intriguing nationally-televised games. With so many tight spreads and high totals, there should be plenty of excitement on this slate. Let’s survey DraftKings Sportsbook for some player props, totals and sides to bet. You can follow me on Twitter (@KennyDucey) for any late adds.
Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I really want to take the Celtics here. The Nuggets are banged up and shorthanded without Paul Millsap, Will Barton and now perhaps Monte Morris, who is listed as questionable for this game. I still am not buying that this team can play defense, and generally the Celtics have been a profitable team to back all season long. That said, Boston should just get destroyed in the post and on the glass here without a key member of the frontcourt in Daniel Theis, who is out with a finger sprain. This team was already struggling with the fifth-lowest rebounding rate in the NBA, so I’m troubled to say the least. On top of that, Jayson Tatum is coming off his worst game of the season on Sunday with just six points, and seems to be in a funk at the moment. The weakened frontcourt, combined with what’s been very soft defense against the point guard position all season, should assist Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in securing the victory.
Do you know who has the hottest offense in the NBA at the moment? That’s right, the New Orleans Pelicans! The Pels rank atop the NBA with a 125.1 offensive rating over the course of the last seven games, which began with a four-game winning streak and was followed by three losses. New Orleans should get back on track here against a Grizzlies side which coincidentally has the fifth-worst defense over that span and won’t have Desmond Bane or De’Anthony Melton. This means that Dillon Brooks — a defensive liability — should receive huge minutes, perhaps upwards of 40, at the shooting guard position. It just so happens that the Pelicans’ shooters are red-hot at the moment, with JJ Redick, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Eric Bledsoe all shooting north of 42% over the past seven games. I don’t fancy Brooks’ chances of slowing down whoever he’s on. That goes for any of the Grizzlies defenders, frankly, considering the team allows threes at the eighth-highest rate this year.
New Orleans has its own defensive issues, but they have the clear edge in offensive firepower, enough to power them here.
Editor’s Note: Nets PG Kyrie Irving (back) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Suns.
Many will chase the over here after the Nets easily covered a ridiculous total of 242.5 one night ago, but I love the under. First of all, Kevin Durant (hamstring) remains out, while Kyrie Irving and/or James Harden could potentially be rested on the second night of a back-to-back. Second of all, there is the issue of pace. The Suns average the second-fewest possessions per 48 miniutes (97.4) in the NBA this year, and while the Nets have the fifth-quickest, we’ve seen this movie before. Phoenix has been able to slow down some of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA over the past few games, generating a pace of 96.0 possessions against the Bucks and 98.0 possessions against the Sixers. This is thanks to Chris Paul’s innate ability to slowly break down a defense, using up the entire 24 second clock. The under should improve to what’s nearly a league-best 16-10 in Suns games this year, as Phoenix slows the pace and the Nets miss a few extra shots with tired legs.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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