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The Clippers are sporting the third-best record in the Western Conference at 20-8, despite Paul George missing the past five games and eight games in total on the season. The Heat are at the opposite end of the spectrum, as they are ninth in the Eastern Conference with an 11-15 record. Miami has been ravaged by injuries and COVID-related absences, but the Heat are getting healthier and come into this game having won four straight. DK Sportsbook has the home Clippers favored by 3.5 points with the O/U at 216 for tonight.
Let’s break down everything to play a few Showdown lineups.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIA vs LAC)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Lou Williams ($11,400 CP) — Full disclosure: I had Kawhi Leonard here initially and wrote a whole spiel on how my Spidey senses believed that he sat yesterday because the Cavs stink and that he would play tonight. Oh well, it was good writing practice. Now we pivot. Kawhi, Paul George and Patrick Beverley have all been ruled out for this one. With those three off the court this season, Lou has seen a usage bump of 4.5% for a team-high 29.7%. Last night, with Kawhi and George out, Lou scored 30 points with 10 assists, good for a season-high 49 DKFP. He should be heavily involved once again.
Jimmy Butler ($14,100 CP) — It was very close choosing between Butler and Bam Adebayo ($14,400 CP; $9,600) for this slot. Adebayo is $300 more expensive and both have difficult matchups. The Clippers are ninth in suppressing the fantasy points per minute to small forwards while they are sixth against centers. I ended up going with Butler because he garners a 2 percent higher usage rate and averages 1.32 DKFP per minute compared to 1.24 for Bam. Plus, there will be no Kawhi defending him. Butler is coming off a 37.5 DKFP performance, which may be the reason he’s cheaper than Bam, but prior to that, he scored 58, 56, 44.5, 44.5, 44.5, 50.25 and 50.75 DKFP. In the past seven games for Bam, he eclipsed the 40-DKFP threshold four times.
FLEX Plays
Max Strus ($3,000) — Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley are out again for Miami tonight. Their absences have provided an opportunity for Strus to shine. In the past two games, he’s played 25 and 20 minutes while scoring 21 and 15 points, respectively. That has translated to 23.5 and 20.75 DKFP. Strus is a knock-down shooter who also has the ability to put the ball on the floor and take it strong to the basket. The coaches trust him and so do the players, as Butler constantly barks at him to shoot.
Serge Ibaka ($5,600) — Ibaka averages 1.06 DKFP per minute and with Kawhi, George and Beverley off the court, he sees the biggest usage bump of 6.3% to 27.4%. Last night, he scored a season-high 44.25 DKFP. Things should be much tougher tonight against the Heat and Bam, but the increased usage and relatively cheap price make Ibaka a viable option.
Marcus Morris Sr. ($6,200) — Morris has produced 33.5 and 39.5 DKFP in the past two games. His value comes from rebounding and scoring points, so there’s volatility to his production as he won’t shoot 60% and 50% from the field every night. With that said, there’s no reason why he can’t do it three games in a row. Glass is half full! The Heat boosts the fantasy points per minute to power forwards by 9.03%, the fourth-most generous in the league. Over the past five games, Morris has attempted 11, 11, 12, 10 and 14 shots. That’s all you can ask for. Whether he makes them or not is up to the fantasy gods, or his shooting stroke, whatever you believe in. With Kawhi, George and Beverley off the floor, Morris sees a 5.6% usage bump to 25.6%.
Fades
Kendrick Nunn ($6,800) - Over the past five games, Nunn has been fantastic, averaging 34.2 minutes, 18.2 points, three 3-pointers, 4.4 rebounds, two assists and two steals while garnering a usage rate of 23.2%. He’s attempted 13.8 shots per game. It’s tough to fade that but it’s a one-game slate so someone needs to get chopped. The reason I chose Nunn was because of the matchup. The Clippers are stingy against point guards, as they negate the fantasy points per minute by 3.97% below league average.
THE OUTCOME
This game should be a low-scoring, nip-and-tuck affair. Both teams are in the bottom 10 for offensive pace while both are in the top 10 for defensive efficiency. Despite playing the second leg of a back-to-back, the Clippers didn’t have to travel but not having Kawhi Leonard is a huge blow. On the season, the Clippers are first in offensive efficiency while the Heat are 26th. That spread should tighten up big time tonight. I’ll give the edge to the Heat since they are the healthier team and have their stars while the Clippers do not.
Final Score: Heat 106, Clippers 101
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIA vs LAC)
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