It’s Friday, and we’ve got a loaded 11-game slate in the NBA, including a couple nationally-televised games with some of the biggest names in the sport. With so many tight spreads, there should be plenty of excitement on this slate. Let’s survey DraftKings Sportsbook for some player props, totals and sides to bet. You can follow me on Twitter (@KennyDucey) for any late adds.
Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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It’s normally a losing endeavor watching Friday Night Knicks and hoping for anything other than a loss, but here goes nothing. We’ve got a clash between one of the worst three-point shooting teams (34.3%) in the Wizards against the league’s top three-point defense (32.2%). On top of that, the Wizards have covered just once in the past four games, coming off a 22-point loss to a stout defense in Toronto, and something similar could be brewing on Friday night. Derrick Rose looked spectacular in his return to the Knicks on Tuesday with 14 points in 20 minutes, and will continue to bring this Knicks offense up a level as a massive upgrade over Elfrid Payton. Now that New York’s guard rotation seems to be fixed — giving Payton the boot — this offense should flourish, and we already know the defense is in a good spot. Rose picks up his first win with the Knicks in 2021.
Dallas and New Orleans seem to be two teams heading in the right direction, however upon a closer examination, this couldn’t be further from the truth. The Mavericks’ run of four wins in five games has come with just one cover against the spread, making it one win ATS in 11 tries. Also, the triumphs have come against weak competition in Atlanta, Golden State and Minnesota. The Pelicans rank second-best in rebounding rate, while the Mavericks sit 27th, and the matchup gets better. New Orleans has had the best offense in the NBA over the past five games, due in large part to unsightly shooting, and Dallas’ three-point defense ranks in the bottom half of the league. The Pelicans, who have one of the league’s best front courts, should bully the Mavs down low, and their shooters should have no problem staying hot.
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You know the drill by now: Brad Stevens crushes back-to-back spots. The Celtics are 3-1 against the spread this season in these scenarios, and since Stevens came to town they’re a very profitable 77-56-3 on no rest — good for nearly a 58% cover rate. Boston won’t have Kemba Walker (rest) for this one, but Payton Pritchard should be able to do more than enough in his place, after scoring 20 points off the bench on Thursday. On the other hand, the Pistons will be incredibly shorthanded in the frontcourt without Mason Plumlee and now Sekou Doumbouya, and we’ve seen the Celtics dominate on the glass in spots like this in weeks past (the game against the Warriors last week without their starting centers comes to mind). I think this could get ugly for Detroit.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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