Week 14. It’s winning time, so don’t even think about playing La’Mical Perine. Too bad unearthing the unforeseen isn’t as easy as filling the DeLorean with gasoline. If you’ve been getting trounced lately, channel your inner Wolverine and rise from the depths of a submarine. The Colts, Dolphins, Patriots and Eagles are on their bye. As a result, there are 11 games on the main DraftKings NFL slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there is one game with a total of at least 50 points — BUF/TB (52.5). There are two double-digit favorites — GB -11.5 over CHI and LAC -10.5 over NYG.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,800 — Early on in the process, I lean toward paying down at quarterback this week. If paying up, though, Allen is the most enticing for me.
Tampa Bay has one of the best rush defenses in the league, as they are ninth in DVOA. The Bills prefer to pass anyway so it’s a match made in heaven. While Allen hasn’t been the dual-threat behemoth of last season, he’s attempted 30 passes and rushed at least five times in six games.
While I think it’s well within the range of outcomes that this game turns into a slugfest, DraftKings Sportsbook has it with the only total above 50 points.
Allen has five games with fewer than 20 DKFP but he has two games with 39.5 and 40.22, which is a ceiling that few can access.
Other Options – Patrick Mahomes ($8,000), Dak Prescott ($6,700)
Value
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets, $5,600 — Hill may be a....my momma always taught me that if you don’t have anything nice to say about someone then you shouldn’t say anything at all....Thanks, momma but I gotta do this. Hill is a bad real-life quarterback but he’s amazing for fantasy. Last week against the Cowboys, he went 19-for-41 and threw four interceptions but he racked up 264 yards and two touchdowns through the air and rushed 11 times for 101 yards on the ground. That was good for 27.66 DKFP.
The Saints are favored by five points on the road, so the game script should be favorable for Hill. He also has 11 red-zone carries on the season.
Other Options – Joe Burrow ($6,000), Cam Newton ($5,400)
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Running Back
Stud
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Giants, $8,300 — Ekeler is the highest-priced running back on the slate and the only one priced above $8,000. While he hasn’t carried the ball 20 times in any game this season, he’s gone over 20 DKFP in seven games with three of those above 30 and a high of 41.5. It is the passing game involvement that provides the high floor and ceiling, as he’s received at least five targets in 10 games. More importantly, he’s received 26 red-zone rushes. The Giants are 31st in rush defense DVOA and the Chargers are favored by 10.5 points, so the environment should be a plush one.
Other Options – Leonard Fournette ($7,400), Alvin Kamara ($7,900)
Value
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys, $6,000 – Over the last four games, Gibson has carried the ball 23, 29, 19 and 24 times. He’s scored over 20 DKFP in three of those contests and received 24 red-zone carries and two targets on the season. Now, JD McKissic ($5,000) could return this week so Gibson may lose some passing game work. That said, two weeks ago, Gibson received seven targets while McKissic garnered five in the same game.
Dallas is 19th in rush defense DVOA and the volume and role are too much to ignore at this price.
Other Options – Saquon Barkley ($6,000), Javonte Williams ($5,900—if Melvin Gordon is out), Josh Jacobs ($6,200)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $8,500 — Hill put up a whopping 4.2 DKFP last week. Will the recency bias keep many off him this week? I hope so. Prior to that game, Hill received 11, 10, 11, 18, nine, 12, 13 and 12 targets. Whew, I need a cigarette. He scored at least 20 DKFP six times with two games with 40.1 and 50.6 DKFP. I’m chain-smoking now. The Raiders are 23rd in pass-defense DVOA and he caught seven of 10 targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns in the last meeting with Las Vegas. Just open the whole carton!
Other Options – Chris Godwin ($7,100), Deebo Samuel ($8,000), CeeDee Lamb ($7,200), Ja’Marr Chase ($6,900)
Value
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team, $5,900 – Cooper missed two games due to COVID-19 and only played in 24 of the 70 snaps last week. He should be good to go for this week and gets a fantastic matchup as the Football Team is 30th in pass-defense DVOA.
Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5,000), Josh Reynolds ($4,100)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $7,400 – Kelce scored a whopping 5.7 DKFP last week. That was the third time he’s scored fewer than 10 DKFP. As Scooby would say, Ruh-roh. Kelce has gone over 20 DKFP four times, though, and has target counts of eight, eight, 10, eight, seven, 12, 11 and 10 over the last eight games. The Raiders allow the second-most fantasy points to the position and Kelce hauled in eight of 10 targets for 119 yards in the last meeting.
Other Options – George Kittle ($6,900)
Value
Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, $4,000 – Moreau has been priced up $1,300 from last week after producing 4.4 DKFP. Who’s coming with me? I have to imagine that he will be very low-owned this week which makes him enticing. He played in 85% of the snaps last week and the Chiefs have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. Let’s not forget that he caught six of six targets for 60 yards and a touchdown in the other game he filled in for Darren Waller.
Other Options – Austin Hooper ($3,400), John Bates ($3,000)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
New Orleans Saints DST at New York Jets, $3,600 – The Saints are 12th in pass-defense DVOA and first in rush defense. On the season, they have racked up 26 sacks, recovered three fumbles, intercepted 13 passes and scored two touchdowns. They now get to face Zach Wilson ($5,300), who played relatively well against the Eagles last week, but he’s still Zach Wilson.
Other Option – Seattle Seahawks DST ($3,100), Denver Broncos DST ($3,800)
Value
Carolina Panthers DST vs. Atlanta Falcons, $2,800 – The Panthers have held six teams to fewer than 20 points this season with four of those games at 10 points or less. They have racked up 36 sacks, six fumble recoveries, eight interceptions and one touchdown. They are fifth in pass-defense DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate. The Falcons are 25th in pass blocking and the last time these teams met, the Panthers scored 11 DKFP, as they held Atlanta to 13 points while racking up three sacks and two interceptions.
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