This is the last week of byes. Hallelujah! The Colts, Dolphins, Patriots and Eagles are off so no Jonathan Taylor, Myles Gaskin, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, or Kenneth Gainwell on this week’s main DraftKings NFL slate.
Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point on DraftKings this week, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.
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Studs
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Giants, $8,300
This is an interesting week and spot for Ekeler, especially considering that he is the only running back priced above $8,000. The Chargers are favored by 10.5 points at home according to DraftKings Sportsbook, so the game script should lean toward the run. The Giants are also 31st in rush defense DVOA. That said, Ekeler has not carried the ball 20 times in any game this season and he makes most of his hay in the passing game, so a ceiling outcome usually comes in a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair or in a contest that the Chargers are chasing points. The reason I am OK still going with Ekeler, though, is because the floor is high — around 15 carries and five to 10 targets — and he gets most of the red-zone touches. On the season, he has 47 while the other three running backs have a combined 14.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 14.4 attempts
Receiving: 6.5 Targets; 5.0 Receptions
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills, $7,400
Fournette has exceeded point expectations 80% of the time on the season. What a time to be alive! He’s produced at least 30 DKFP in two contests with a high of 47.1. Unlike Ekeler, he does have two games with at least 20 carries but like Ekeler, Fournette provides a high floor due to his passing game involvement. Over the last nine games, he’s received eight, eight, six, nine, five, four, six, five and five targets. In the red zone, he’s had 54 touches while Ronald Jones II ($4,200) and Giovani Bernard ($4,400) have combined for 18. The Bills are a tough matchup since they are top five in both rush and pass defense DVOA, but Fournette scored three touchdowns on the ground a few weeks ago against the Colts, who are top three in rush defense DVOA.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 13.9 attempts
Receiving: 6.2 Targets; 4.7 Receptions
Values
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys, $6,000
Over the past four games, Gibson has carried the ball 23, 29, 19 and 24 times. He’s also received six, seven, zero and two targets in the passing game while getting four, six, six, and eight rushes with two targets in the red zone. Gibson has gone over 20 DKFP in three of those contests. J.D. McKissic ($5,000) missed last week so if he returns, Gibson could lose some snaps and passing game work. That said, in Week 12 when both players were active, Gibson carried 29 times and received seven targets in the passing game. The Cowboys are 18th in rush defense DVOA.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 18.1 attempts
Receiving: 3.5 Targets; 2.7 Receptions
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants @ Los Angeles Chargers, $6,000
It’s been three games since Barkley returned from a four-game absence. The workload and production have been meh at best, as he’s rushed 11, 13 and six times while producing 13.4, 9.3 and 11.6 DKFP. He has received six, five and nine targets in the passing game and he now gets his best matchup to date. The Chargers are dead-last in rush defense DVOA, allow the second-most red-zone touches to running backs and have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to the position.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 123.3 attempts
Receiving: 4.5 Targets; 3.5 Receptions
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs, $6,200
The Chiefs are 27th in rush defense DVOA. Good. The Raiders are 31st in run blocking. Bad. Kansas City is favored by 9.5 points. Bad. The last time Jacobs faced the Chiefs, he rushed seven times for 16 yards, resulting in 8.6 DKFP. Bad. So why am I writing up Jacobs? Kenyan Drake is done for the season and Jacobs played in 85% of the snaps last week. Peyton Barber could get some more snaps this week but Jacobs could once again get 80% of the snaps. The biggest number, though, is the nine targets he received last week. He now has 45 on the season and Drake had 40 so his floor should be elevated big time. Drake also had 19 red-zone touches, so Jacobs could monopolize those as well. The price is too good for a running back who should get most of the snaps, targets and red-zone opportunities in what is a good matchup on the ground.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 14.2 attempts
Receiving: 5.9 Targets; 4.5 Receptions
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