Normally, I’d be like, YO IT’S THE LAST WEEK OF THE NFL SEASON WHATTTTTT!?!?

But it’s not. Week 18 is a thing and that means Week 17 is just another week. So let’s talk about it.

You have to follow me on Twitter or else you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

New England Patriots (-16; -1125) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+700)

Betting trends:
Jaguars 2021 road record: 0-7
Jaguars 2021 road record when underdogs: 0-6
Jaguars 2021 ATS record: 4-11
Jaguars 2021 ATS record when underdogs: 2-4

Patriots 2021 home record: 3-5
Patriots 2021 home record as favorites: 3-3
Patriots 2021 ATS record: 9-6
Patriots 2021 ATS record as favorites: 6-4

The spread on this game is quite ridiculous. Do you honestly look at this line and want to bet the Patriots? Granted, the Patriots have done very well in this spot ATS as favorites, going 6-4 and covering by an average of 9.1 points. That being said, the Patriots have not been double-digit favorites at any point this season and the largest spread they’ve covered was -7, doing so three times. The Patriots closed as -8 favorites against the Texans, the largest spread of the season and failed to cover that.

As for the Jaguars, they’ve been double-digit underdogs three times so far. This will be the fourth-time they’ve been in this scenario. The Jags have covered in two of the three games as underdogs, doing so against the Bills (+14.5) and the Colts (+10.5). Where they failed to cover was an annihilation by the Rams, where they closed as 14-point dogs and lost by a score of 37-7. Look, I’m not going out of my way to bet the Jags but this spread is getting a bit out of control, in my opinion. This originally opened at -15.5, touched -16.5 at one point is and now back down to -16. The Patriots should be able to handle this game and notch another win under their belt but I’m not looking to take them ATS.

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Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Arizona Cardinals (+220) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6.5; -275) Over/Under: 52

Betting trends:
Cardinals 2021 road record: 7-1
Cardinals 2021 road record as underdogs: 5-0
Cardinals 2021 Over/Under record: 7-8
Cardinals 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 3-2

Cowboys 2021 home record: 5-2
Cowboys 2021 home record as favorites: 5-2
Cowboys 2021 Over/Under record: 7-8
Cowboys 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 6-5

This is a game I’m really looking forward and is one of two games with an over/under set in the 50’s. The other game features the Chiefs on the road against the Bengals, which has an over/under of 51. As are most teams, both the Cowboys and Cardinals have hit the under more often than the over. In fact, only nine times have hit the over more than 50% of the time this season.

The Cowboys defense has been the story as of late, allowing an average of just 13.3 points over the last three games. That’s quite the difference from the average of 20.5 points they’ve allowed on the season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are getting absolutely roasted lately, allowing an average of 27.3 points over the last three games, which is one of the highest in the league over that span. For reference, the Football Team is in first with 36.7! The Cardinals have really been burned through the air lately, allowing eight passing touchdowns in the last three games against the Rams, Lions and Colts. The Cowboys are throwing the ball early and often, seeing as Dak still made 39 pass attempts in a 56-14 win over the Football Team.

I think the case can be made that this could go under with the number of injuries the Cardinals are dealing with. Of course, they’ll be down DeAndre Hopkins but both James Conner ($6,100) and Chase Edmonds ($5,700) are less than 100%. Conner hasn’t been practicing and Edmonds has been doing so on a limited basis. Kyler Murray ($7,300) has been struggling without Hopkins, completing just 59% of his pass attempts in two games without him and two passing touchdowns. He also has just rushed a total of eight times in that span despite averaging 6.1 per game on the season. This Cowboys secondary has not allowed more than nine catches to opposing receivers in three straight weeks and one touchdown. I think I’d be inclined to take over 29.5 points (-120) for the Cowboys team total instead of the over on the game total.

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NFL Week 17 Betting Splits

These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last Updated: Friday, December 31st, 12:00 p.m.

For the latest updates, be sure to follow my Twitter @SBuchanan24

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NFL Betting Trends

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.

Teams Against the Spread:

Teams Over/Under Records:

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Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals, $6,700 — You can poke holes in a number of different options this week but the Cowboys are not one of them. As I mentioned earlier, the Cowboys have a team total over/under of 29.5 points in this projected shootout against the Cardinals. When the Cowboys have been favorites this season, he’s performed extremely well, averaging 22.4 DKFP while averaging just 12% of the total ownership. If we break this down even further, these numbers bump up to an average of 24.6 DKFP as a home favorite. As mentioned, this Cardinals team is struggling and the Cowboys have been doing their part to protect the run game. I love using him in this matchup with a salary that feels affordable for the matchup.

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Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals, $7,100 — Lamb has been a bit quiet as of late, seeing under 15 DKFP in three-straight games. Against the Football Team twice and Giants, two favorable matchups, he’s averaged just 12 DKFP despite seeing 24 targets in that span. He’s been able to turn that into 17 catches for 177 yards (10.4 YPR) but has failed to reach the end zone dating all the way back to Week 10. With that said, this should be a back-and-forth affair and the volume follows Lamb. While the production has been off, he’s still averaged 20.7% of the total targets on the Cowboys in that three-game span. He’ll also draw one of the better matchups in this game against CB Marco Wilson. In coverage, Wilson has been targeted against 69 times allowing a 72.5% reception rate, 10.5 YPR and seven touchdowns scored against.

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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.

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