All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The Chargers have given up at least one touchdown to an opposing running back each week since Week 5. In that same time, four opposing running backs have posted 75 yards or more. But Los Angeles has faced several split backfields since Week 5. In their last seven games, six opposing backfields have combined to eclipse the century mark vs. the Chargers. Samaje Perine isn’t exactly stealing touches from Mixon, so the latter stat carries more weight when assessing Cincinnati’s top RB going into Week 13.
As for Mixon himself, he’s seen a huge increase in carries over the last two weeks and carved up opposing defenses as a result. He’s also scored a touchdown every week in his last eight starts, totalling 12 throughout the stretch (two of which were receiving). You could go a little higher on the rushing yards and still be a comfortable distance away from the over/under on Mixon’s rushing yards prop (91.5), but this still gives you plus-money value on a player in position to have a big day.
Goff has played interception-free football in his last three starts. Hard to imagine that’s going to last given how he’s performed throughout his first Detroit campaign. Especially when you consider the best passing defense in terms of DVOA he faced in that span currently ranks 26th in that category. Meanwhile, the Vikings have forced at least one interception in six of their last seven games.
Not to mention, Detroit is in an even tougher spot offensively now. D’Andre Swift (shoulder) isn’t officially out yet, but there’s concern he’s going to miss multiple weeks. Jamaal Williams will get his share of opportunities on the ground, but Detroit can’t rely on its backfield to the same level. That should provide more opportunities for Goff to make mistakes.
Matthew Stafford over 2.5 passing touchdowns +125
Tyler Higbee anytime touchdown scorer/LA Rams to win +210
Stafford could very well get picked off again on Sunday (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook), like he has in the last three games, but he’s not going to let Jacksonville’s defense get the best of him. Sure, they held down Josh Allen a few weeks back — which sent the Bills into a tizzy — but the Jaguars still have the worst pass defense DVOA in the league.
That makes them a prime candidate for Stafford to pick on and build off his Week 12 performance. With everyone doubting the Rams as they try to snap this three-game skid, all eyes are on Stafford. That could lead to some mistakes, but he’s going to do everything he can to get his team back on track. Before Week 5, Stafford had logged four consecutive multi-touchdown showings (two three-plus TD games). He started another streak in Week 6, which would last three games — throwing three or more in each of those contests. So following up his three-TD game vs. Green Bay with another is well within reach.
Now, Sony Michel could take over for Darrell Henderson (questionable) if that thigh injury limits the L.A. starting RB or holds him out vs. Jacksonville. But the responsibility to score will ultimately fall on Stafford given uncertainty in the backfield and the Jags being very susceptible against the pass.
And I like Higbee to be one of the Rams pass-catchers to find the end zone. He’s tied for 10th in the league in red zone targets, catching 9 of the 14 passes that’ve come his way (64.29% catch rate). Opposing tight ends have five touchdowns vs. the Jaguars the season, two of which came in one game. More importantly, opposing tight ends have 53 receptions across Jacksonville’s 11 games on 73 targets — equaling out to a 73.97% catch rate.
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