Each week, we’ll be recapping the decisions of the masses and discerning the takeaways that can be applied to future DraftKings NFL contests. I’ll focus on topics like game theory and lineup-building strategies, with the hope of giving everyone the tools to become better DraftKings NFL DFS players. In addition to the recap, this article will also function as a “first look” at the next NFL main slate, giving some initial thoughts on the teams and prices.
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Crazy Scores in Week 16
Week 16 of the NFL season was one of the wildest DFS slates in recent memory, producing many of the highest scoring lineups of the entire season. There was one especially notable dud at running back, with James Robinson finishing with just one fantasy point after going down early in the Jacksonville Jaguars game with a torn achilles. Other chalky players like Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Dallas Goedert, Cordarelle Patterson and Rob Gronkowski were underwhelming, as well, but there were enough high-end games elsewhere on the slate to result in scores well into the 260s. The two most popular players in the $20 Millionaire were Cooper Kupp and Antonio Brown, who scored 24.0 DKFP and 23.0 DKFP, respectively, but neither of them was ultimately needed for the winning lineup.
The key to the slate was the Cincinnati Bengals stack, led by Joe Burrow’s outrageous stat line with 525 passing yards, four touchdowns, and 41.1 DKFP. Tee Higgins was his top scoring receiver with 12 receptions for 194 yards, two touchdowns, and 46.4 DKFP, while Mark Andrews once again posted a big game on the other side to complete the stack. Andrews finished with eight receptions for 125 yards and a touchdown, and his 29.5 DKFP brings him to 33.2 DKFP per game over the last three weeks. The other necessary piece to Week 16 success was Justin Jackson, who scored 35.2 DKFP with just a $4.2K price tag at 44.6% ownership.
Millionaire Contest Winner
$20 Millionaire
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The million dollar top prize in Week 16 went to ‘bmorela3’ who put together a near-perfect lineup with the top scoring players at nearly every position. The core of his Bengals stack wasn’t especially contrarian with Joe Burrow at 12.4% ownership, Ja’Marr Chase at 13.8% and Tee Higgins at 9.3%, but he avoided all of the surrounding bad games and found some less popular options than the aforementioned underwhelming chalk. The one move that did distinguish his Bengals combination was including running back Joe Mixon, who was just 7.1% owned and scored 31.5 DKFP. The winning lineup included a 4.0% Damien Harris and his 31.3 DKFP, as well, and it was good enough to secure the victory by a margin of more than five fantasy points. In addition to the $1M top prize, ‘bmorela3’ will be entered into the DraftKings Championship Series Tournament of Champions.
First Look at Week 17
Josh Allen ($8,000) is the most expensive quarterback for the second week in a row, and he figures to be a popular option after another strong game in Week 16 with 34.0 DKFP. Mac Jones ($5,300) could be this week’s preferred value choice with a diminished price tag and a great matchup at home against the Jaguars, but he’s coming off of a game in which he scored just 7.1 DKFP.
The running back position could once again shuffle throughout the week due to injuries and COVID concerns, but Jonathan Taylor ($9,000) figures to be one of the most popular choices as long as he’s on the field. Boston Scott ($4,900) looks like the slate’s best value play with Miles Sanders getting hurt against the New York Giants, and he’ll be even more difficult to fade if Jordan Howard ($5,200) misses the game, too.
Cooper Kupp ($9,500) is the most expensive player on the whole slate, but he could be too good to pass up against a struggling and injury-depleted Baltimore Ravens’ defense. A.J. Brown ($7,200) figures to have a large target share with Julio Jones out this week, while Antonio Brown ($6,100) likely remains far too cheap with Mike Evans out again, this time to the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Week 17 has three tight ends priced above $7K, with Mark Andrews ($7,400), Travis Kelce ($7,300) and George Kittle ($7,100) creating a difficult decision among the expensive choices. Rob Gronkowksi ($6,200) could wind up as a more popular pick than all of them, saving about $1,000 off the top tier and getting another increased workload with Evans not playing.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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