The COVID list continues to wreak havoc on the league as depth charts continue to be shuffled. We’ll do our best to give you insight into the Week 16 board but please do your due diligence and stay on top of the news. As much as I like to pride myself at giving accurate information, the news moves too fast and this article very well could be outdated by the time you read this. Nonetheless, here is how I see Week 16 as of Friday, December 24th, 9:44:33 a.m.

You have to follow me on Twitter or else you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Los Angeles Chargers (-10; -450) vs. Houston Texans (+340)

Betting trends:
Chargers 2021 road record: 4-2
Chargers 2021 road record when favorites: 0-1
Chargers 2021 ATS record: 7-7
Chargers 2021 ATS record when favorites: 3-5

Texans 2021 home record: 1-6
Texans 2021 home record as underdogs: 1-5
Texans 2021 ATS record: 6-8
Texans 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 6-7

Two of the biggest names on both sides have landed on the COVID list, with the Chargers placing Austin Ekeler ($8,100) on Wednesday and Brandin Cooks ($6,300) on the same day for the Texans. The Texans, specifically, are dealing with a very lengthy list of players on the list, especially on the defensive side. While losing Ekeler would be a big loss for the Chargers, the loss of the number one target for the Texans is even bigger. If he’s out, that would leave Nico Collins ($3,400) Chris Conley ($3,300) and Phillip Dorsett ($3,000) as the top three wideouts. Cooks has dominated the target share on the Texans, accounting for 27.4% of the team total. Collins is a VERY distant second at 10.1%. Conley is only 7% while Dorsett was signed from the practice squad earlier this month after being cut by the Seahawks. This three would have a very tough time against a strong Chargers secondary that’s held two teams to under 69 yards to opposing receivers in two of their last four games (Broncos, Giants).

This is the first time the Chargers have been double-digit favorites all season long. They closed as -9 favorites against the Giants two weeks ago and were able to cover that spread by 16 points in an easy 37-21 win. It’s hard to picture a scenario where the Texans win this game outright, let alone cover the spread even with one of the biggest that the Chargers have seen as favorites. Meanwhile, despite the Texans struggling to win games, aren’t a strong team covering either. They’re 6-8 ATS while failing to cover by an average of -2.1 points. When the Texans have been double-digit underdogs, they have an ATS record of 3-5. With how many starters this Texans is potentially missing, I have no issue taking the Chargers here.

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Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5; -170) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+150) Over/Under: 48

Betting trends:
Rams 2021 road record: 5-2
Rams 2021 road record as favorites: 4-2
Rams 2021 Over/Under record: 7-6-1
Rams 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 5-6-1

Vikings 2021 home record: 4-2
Vikings 2021 home record as underdogs: 2-0
Vikings 2021 Over/Under record: 8-6
Vikings 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 4-2

Despite this being the highest total on the board, we don’t have a game total in the 50’s this week. This total has stayed relatively the same, touching 49 points earlier in the week before coming back down to the 48. Both of these teams have seen plenty of success hitting the over on the game totals, going a combined 14-12-1. For reference, only FIVE teams in the NFL have hit the over on the game total more than 50% of the time. Two of those teams are the Vikings at 57.1%, which is tied for the best in the league and the Rams at 53.9%. The rest of the league is at 50% or lower.

The Vikings are dealing with some COVID issues and will be without Dalvin Cook, who tested positive and is an unvaccinated player. Thus, he has no chance of playing and will be sidelined for 10 days at a minimum. Adam Thielen ($6,900) is questionable as he continues to deal with an ankle injury and logged a limited practice on Thursday. This puts a lot of pressure on Justin Jefferson ($8,100), who has having a hard time geling with Kirk Cousins ($6,200) against the Bears B-squad secondary. Despite ALL five defensive backs out in the game, Jefferson caught only four of his 10 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. The Rams will likely look to blanket Jefferson in coverage if Thielen is out again. For what it’s worth, Jefferson did see a lot of time in the slot last week, playing 47% of his snaps there, which were the most he’s seen in games without Thielen. The two prior times, Thielen was on the field.

I do like this game to go over the total. The Rams are getting healthier with COVID issues starting to be in their rear view mirror. They were one of the hardest hit teams in the league but the list continues to get smaller. Regardless, Cooper Kupp ($9,100) continues to carry this team on his back logging his third-straight game and ninth overall with 100+ receiving yards. CB Mackensie Alexander, who has been targeted against 67 times, allowing 47 receptions for an average of 12 YPR and three touchdowns against. Amongst all cornerbacks, the 312 yards after catch allowed by Alexander is the third-most in the league, trailing only Trevon Diggs of the Cowboys and Kenny Moore of the Colts.

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NFL Week 15 Betting Splits

These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last Updated: Saturday, December 24th, 11:00 a.m.

For the latest updates, be sure to follow my Twitter @SBuchanan24

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NFL Betting Trends

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.

Teams Against the Spread:

Teams Over/Under Records:

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Target Report

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Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants, $6,400 — It’s hard to find a “safe” option on this slate when it comes to quarterback. We have some options for sure, like Matt Stafford ($6,700) and Justin Herbert ($7,200). That said, despite Hurts dealing with an ankle injury, the floor for him is extremely safe. Even if the Eagles were to blow out the Giants, which is a very big possibility, Hurts will still get you the necessary fantasy points. Last week, he was dealing with the same ankle injury and still rushed the ball eight times for 38 yards and two touchdowns, en route to a 29.64 DKFP performance. Sure, his Week 12 game against this team was a disaster (9.86 DKFP) but I think it’s fair to say that was an overall dreadful week for the team, not because the Giants were on lockdown defense. Hurts leads the Eagles in red zone rushes, accounting for 35.2% of the team total. Miles Sanders ($5,600) is next in line at 21% while carrying a legitimate questionable tag. Give me Hurts against a Giants team allowing an average of 22 DKFP to opposing QB’s.

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Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants, $5,100 — I’m stacking Hurts with Goedert, who finally looks to be settling into his TE1 role. He’s gone over 100 receiving yards in two straight games, combining for 13/240/2 in that span. His total air yards on the team continues to be on the rise as well. He now accounts for an average of 26.6 per game and a 16.4% of the teams total share. His 14.4 YPR is the second-highest on this slate amongst all tight ends, with the exception of Kyle Pitts ($5,800). Against a Giants team that’s been very generous to this position, this is the one to pair Hurts with.

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