Week 16. Three more weeks of regular season football. Time sure does fly when you’re having fun. There are two games on Saturday again so the main NFL slate will consist of 11 games. COVID-related illnesses have spiked over the last week, so make sure to follow @dklive for all the updates.
Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point on DraftKings this week, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]
Studs
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets, $5,900
In the first game without Urban Meyer on the sidelines, Robinson carried the ball 18 times for 75 yards and a touchdown while hauling in three of six targets for 13 yards. He received four red-zone carries and played in 84% of the snaps. Granted, it’s a one-game sample but he looks to be the bell cow for now. The matchup was pristine last week, as the Texans are 27th in rush defense DVOA. Well, the Jets are dead-last so it looks like a good week to take a stroll through Mr. Robinson’s neighborhood again.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 16.7 attempts
Receiving: 4.3 Targets; 3.3 Receptions
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions, $6,700
Dalvin Cook ($8,300) has the safest floor in terms of volume this week but he’s got one of the worst matchups as the Rams are fourth in rush defense DVOA. In addition, he’s expensive and it’s within the range of outcomes that he disappoints, so Robinson and Patterson it is for me this week. Patterson is the anti-Cook, as he doesn’t get the volume and relies solely on efficiency. That said, he gets one of the best matchups this week as the Lions are 29th in rush defense DVOA, and the Falcons are 5.5-point favorites at home on DraftKings Sportsbook. Over the last four weeks, Patterson has received 11, 16, 13 and 16 carries. He’s scored three touchdowns and gone over 100 yards once. He’s received 15 carries and three targets in the red zone and 15 total targets in the passing game.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 14.7 attempts
Receiving: 5.4 Targets; 4.1 Receptions
Values
Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans, $4,200
Austin Ekeler hasn’t officially been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list but all indications point to that being the case. If he’s out, then Jackson would presumably get most of the work. He played in 54% of the snaps last week while Joshua Kelley was in on only 16%. Jackson has looked good when given the opportunity and rushed 13 times for 86 yards last week. The Texans are 27th in rush defense DVOA so the matchup is an excellent one.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 8.5 attempts (since Ekeler hasn’t been officially ruled out)
Receiving: 2.3 Targets; 1.8 Receptions
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers, $5,100
Leonard Fournette is done for the season so it’s Jones’ time to shine. The Panthers are eighth in pass-defense DVOA and 24th in rush defense, so the path of least resistance is on the ground. There’s uncertainty as to what his role will be and he’s entered the doghouse of Bruce Arians plenty. That said, he won’t see stacked boxes, the price is cheap and there’s plenty of upside. Just know that the floor is low as well.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 14.3 attempts
Receiving: 3.0 Targets; 2.3 Receptions
Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.