The Blackhawks come in with a 6-3 record over their last nine games and playing some pretty solid hockey. They’ve been supported by outstanding goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury who is projected as the starter (although not confirmed). Fleury has posted a .939 save percentage over his last 10 appearances and will be going up against Vitek Vanecek, who is sporting just a .900 save percentage over his last 10 appearances. The Capitals are coming off an emotional collapse against the Panthers and seem vulnerable here, especially with lots of injuries still affecting their roster.
Pastrnak comes into this game averaging 5.3 shots on net over his last 10 games. He fired nine shots on net in the Bruins last game and seems likely to keep up the volume with Brad Marchand out. Pastrnak is currently sitting about 6% lower than his career average in shooting percentage, so I like targeting him at these solid odds with some positive regression potentially looming.
Top Line Stack
Dallas Stars vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Roope Hintz ($5,700) — Jason Robertson ($4,800) — Joe Pavelski ($4,200)
There’s really been no better trio—either from a DFS value perspective or just pure production standpoint—than the Stars’ first line over the last couple of weeks. All of the positive regression from Roope Hintz’s terrible start to the year has come at once, as he enters this game as a literal man on fire with 14 points and 10 goals over his last 10 games.
That production has allowed him to average an insane 16.7 DKFP over his last 10 starts and it has also helped carry his linemates to productive stretches as well. Jason Robertson hasn’t put the puck on net this year as much as he did as a rookie, but he’s got nine assists over his last 10 games and still rates out very well from a CorsiFor standpoint, so his shot totals could rise eventually. Joe Pavelski is simply too cheap for a player with 12 points in his last 10 games and playing alongside these two studs.
The correlation is also superb, as these three have essentially played all their minutes together and feature regularly on the Stars’ power play which is a top-five unit in the league right now. Columbus allows over 33 shots per game and have slipped of late in the goaltending and defense department, allowing 12 goals over their last two games. The Stars are not going under the radar anymore, but the price here is too cheap not to take advantage of this burgeoning trio.
Superstar to Target
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens ($8,700)
The Avalanche were embarrassed yesterday in Toronto, and if you’re Nathan MacKinnon, there’s really no better spot to take out your frustrations, than Montreal right now. The Canadiens are awful in pretty much every defensive metric at the moment, including penalty kill where they rank second to last in efficiency on the season.
MacKinnon comes in still leading the center position in long-term form in shots on net at 4.09 over the last 12 months, and he played a healthy 21 minutes in his return last game, where he also picked up two assists. The slate dynamics could also have us looking at targeting the Bruins’ or Hurricanes’ first line, but using MacKinnon feels like the best value move at the top of the board, given he’s still available at under 9k and in the best matchup of the top-three priced forwards on the slate. Expect Colorado’s top offensive player to push for a big game here.
Value on Offense
Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning vs. St. Louis Blues ($4,400)
These two teams met a couple nights ago, and the game saw seven goals with Cirelli potting one of them for the Lightning (and assisting on another). Cirelli is heading up the second line for Tampa, but remains a part of their first-unit power play with all of the injuries they have up front. St. Louis has struggled of late on the penalty kill and haven’t been nearly as good defensively in road games. Cirelli is cost effective, averaging right around 3.0 shots on net over his last 10 games and in a good spot to post another solid game against the Blues tonight.
Connor Brown, Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes ($2,900)
The Hurricanes are really banged up on defense at the moment (three of their top six are out) and their goaltending hasn’t been as sharp of late either. There’s the chance we see some goals on both sides of this game and Connor Brown has been very solid for the Senators of late. He’s grabbed seven points in his last 10 games, averaged over 20 minutes a game and over 2.0 shots on net over that period. With a salary under $3,000 and facing off against a struggling Carolina squad, he’s a solid punt for those in need of a cheap play to round out lineups.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning vs. St. Louis Blues ($7,900)
The Lightning take on the Blues at home tonight in a spot where the Lightning sit as -115 favorites, despite losing to St. Louis a couple of games ago. The Lightning are 7-3-1 this year at home, while the Blues are just 5-4-1 on the road with a -1 goal differential. We’re getting a great price to roster Andrei Vasilevskiy at under $8,000, who comes in with a .936 and two shutouts on his record over his last 10 games. You don’t see the best goalie in the world at these kinds of affordable prices often, so take advantage while you can.
Marc-Andre Fleury, Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals ($6,900)
One spot I really like for GPPs on this slate is siding with the Blackhawks against what looks like a still depleted Washington lineup. The Capitals blew a three goal lead in their last game against the Panthers, surrendering an insane 27 shots in the third period alone. Fleury comes in having posted a .939 save percentage over his last 10 games and is uber-cheap, to the point where he could even pay off with a solid night even if he doesn't get the win. Backing him at these prices makes sense against a Capitals forward group who may be tiring after a strong start.
Value on Defense
Alex Goligoski, Minnesota Wild vs. New Jersey Devils ($3,700)
The Wild have been on a tear of late and one player who has shot back up to fantasy relevancy because of it is Alex Goligoski. The veteran is seeing second line power play time for Minnesota who enters this game with nine points in his last 10-games. Goligoski has always been a sneaky good offensive producer so his added opportunity shouldn't go unnoticed here. He’s also facing a Devils team who still features some of the weaker goaltending in the league and who have given up three or more goals in eight of their last nine games. Goligoski remains a savvy value play here and easy way to get exposure to the Wild’s offense.
Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars ($6,700)
Werenski has risen into the elite tier on defense in 2021. He’s averaging just over 5.0 blocked shots + shots on goal per game over his last 10 starts and heads an underrated Blue Jackets power play that ranks out 11th best in the league right now. The Stars have been playing good hockey of late, and got much improved goaltending as well, but they still rate out with just the 20th best penalty kill in the league. This game has some offensive potential and Werenski looks like the most undervalued of the top group on defense today at under 7k in price.
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