Hello all you hooligans. Welcome to Week 13 is upon is and we’re going to chat about it. So let’s do that.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Los Angeles Rams (-12.5; -720) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+500)
Betting trends:
Rams 2021 home record: 3-2
Rams 2021 home record when favored: 2-2
Rams 2021 ATS record: 4-7
Rams 2021 ATS record when favored: 3-7
Jaguars 2021 road record: 0-4
Jaguars 2021 road record as underdogs: 0-3
Jaguars 2021 ATS record: 4-7
Jaguars 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 4-6
Man, can you feel good about the Rams right now? It’s hard to do so, even against this Jaguars team. Trust me, this is NOT an endorsement to bet the Jaguars by any means, however, the Rams as the biggest favorite? Doesn’t sound like an appealing bet to me. The Rams come into this game having lost three in a row and have failed to cover in five straight. Three of those games the Rams were double-digit favorites. They did win two of those games outright but covering the spread has been a major issue lately.
News dropped Sunday morning that Matt Stafford ($7,300) is dealing with chronic back pain, a sore ankle and recurring elbow pain. Like, what the hell, man? He followed up the news by completing just 55.3% of his 38 pass attempts but they went for 302 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. 79 of those yards came on a beautiful Van Jefferson ($5,300) TD to help salvage his day. Aside from that, Stafford didn’t seem limited much otherwise. Now he’ll face a Jaguars defense that’s allowing one of the highest yards per pass attempt to opposing QB’s at 7.91. That bodes well for Stafford, who is fourth in the league in YPA himself at 8.3. Between Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr ($5,500) he has two real threats to stretch the field with and capitalize on the weakness. Beckham averaged 16.2 YPC last week, going 5/81/1 on 10 targets.
I don’t believe the Rams will drop their fourth-straight game against the Jaguars. Most of you don’t either. That said, I’m not prepared to bet this game at all. I cannot trust this Rams team to cover such a large spread, even against a weak team like the Jags. Two of the four games the Jags have covered the spread were when they were double-digit dogs. They closed at +14.5 to the Bills, who they beat outright (I still don’t understand) and +10.5 to the Colts, which they lost by six. This is a classic case of “bet on the better team” which is by far the Rams. Against the spread though, this is not a spot I feel comfortable on the favorite with the points.
Other notable favorites: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-575; -11) at Atlanta Falcons (+410)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Cincinnati Bengals (-3; -165) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+145) Over/Under: 50.5
Betting trends:
Chargers 2021 road record: 3-2
Chargers 2021 road record as underdogs: 2-1
Chargers 2021 Over/Under record: 4-7
Chargers 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 0-3
Bengals 2021 home record: 3-2
Bengals 2021 home record as favorites: 2-1
Bengals 2021 Over/Under record: 5-6
Bengals 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 3-3
Two teams that haven’t been particularly at hitting the over on the game total. These teams have combined to go 9-13 with the over with the Chargers being the team worse off. While the Bengals are under .500 with the over, they have covered four of their last five after starting off going 1-4. To help the case for the over, the Bengals come into this game averaging just under 30 points per game in their last three at 29.7. The Chargers are at 24.8 in their last three.
The biggest weakness in this game comes in the form of the Chargers run defense. It ranks as one of the worst in the league while also allowing the most rushing yards at 1336 or an average of 121 per game. The 4.6 YPC allowed is also one of the highest and will be an issue against a red hot Joe Mixon ($8,100). He’s gone for a massive 288 rushing yards on 58 carries (4.9 YPC) over his last two games. Despite both games being blowouts, Mixon has been getting his touches in finding massive success. That being said, the Bengals are one of the slower paced teams in the league, averaging 61.4 (24th) plays per game. For reference, the Ravens lead the league at 71.2. I think the value on this total has been after originally opening at at 48. Since then, it’s touched 51 and currently rests at the 50.5 total. If we can get this at 50 again, I’d be interested but think this total is trending in the wrong direction.
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NFL Week 13 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, $6,500 — We have a lot of solid options on the board this week at quarterback. However, I’m going a bit rouge and rolling with Cousins against the Lions. Per the usual, his ownership will lie in the singe digits despite the good matchup. The Lions allow the largest yards per pass attempt in the league at 8.2 and have given up an average of 255 passing yards. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook as well, so we could see Cousins passing more, even with him averaging over 37 attempts per game. With him being relatively inexpensive all season long, Cousins as gone 4X or better in five of his 11 games this season. Against this defense as -7 favorites, we could easily see that happen once again.
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, $8,200 — When you think about teams going down the field deep against the Lions, that fits the mold perfectly for Jefferson. We saw him stretch the field already against the Lions, going 7/124/0 for 22.4 DKFP back in Week 5. He’ll line up the most against CB Amani Oruwariye, who has been targeted against 47 times allowing 31 receptions (66%) and 14 YPR. The majority of the damage done by Jefferson back in Week 5 was against Oruwariye, who allowed five of those catches for 101 yards and an average of 20.2 YPR. I would not be surprised if Jefferson is also a low owned play this week, as plenty of attention will be on Cooper Kupp ($9,000) against the Jaguars.
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