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Boy, oh boy. I’m hoping by the time Sunday rolls around, this article is still relevant. No promises. At least as of Friday morning it is. So let’s chat about it.
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QUARTERBACK
($6,000 and under)
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets, $5,700 — Honestly, who knows what the player pool will look like come Sunday. As of Friday morning though, I’m loving Tua against the Jets. Yes, this game is projected to be a blowout, as the Dolphins are -9.5 favorites at home. This Jets team has been a disaster defensively (and offensively) allowing an average of 20.1 DKFP, 267 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns to opposing QB’s. Back in Week 11, Tua had a clean pocket to work with on 64.7% of his dropbacks, which saw him complete 91% of his pass attempts for 166 of his 273 yards, a 95.2% adjusted completion percentage and 7.5 YPA. I cannot get over how this price is so low in a plus matchup for the Dolphins and with them as big favorites.
RUNNING BACK
($5,000 and under)
Corey Clement, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, $4,300 – This hinges on the status of Tony Pollard ($5,800) who has put in limited practices this week. If he’s ruled out, this could be a big spot for Clement. The Cowboys are huge favorites (-11) against the Giants, who continue to run out backup after backup after backup at multiple positions. They struggle against the run, allowing an average of 4.44 YPC, an average of 106 rushing yards and 26.4 DKFP to opposing running backs. When the Cowboys played them earlier this season, they ran the ball 35 times and gained 185 on the ground and 30 through the air.
It’s quite clear that Clement is the healthiest back on this team, as Ezekiel Elliott ($7,300) is clearly nursing a knee injury still. Zeke and Clement splits the carries almost evenly last week against the Football Team, although Zeke did get more near the end as this game became close again. Nonetheless, this could be more of a spot for the Cowboys to get a bit healthier, as they have the primetime game next Sunday against the Football Team again. At his price point, Clement, if Pollard is out, should be an easy plug and play option. The Cowboys ran the ball six times in the red zone last week, with Clement taking two, Dak Prescott with three and Zeke with one.
WIDE RECEIVER
($5,000 and under)
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, $4,900 – Boyd falls under the $5K threshold for the first time since Week 11. To be fair, he hasn’t exactly been making a ton of noise in this Bengals offense, averaging 9.1 DKFP in that span but I like this spot for him against the Broncos. The Bengals are slight underdogs in this game and that’s been when Joe Burrow ($6,100) has performed well, averaging 20 DKFP in that scenario (18.6 as favorite). Boyd is averaging 6.1 targets per game this season when the Bengals have been underdogs and draws a decent matchup against CB Kyle Fuller in the slot. While Fuller is allowing just a 61% reception rate, opposing receivers are averaging 14.7. YPR on those catches. Fuller has been struggling lately as well, allowing 15 catches on 19 targets for a total of 182 yards over the last four games.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets, $4,300 — After a multi-game absence, Parker returned last week against the Giants and caught all five of his targets for 62 yards and 11.2 DKFP. It only accounted for 12.2% of the overall targets that week BUT, they’ll be without Waddle. In that game, Waddle saw 26.8% of the targets and will leave a big void amongst the receivers. Parker should be the one to benefit the most (along with Mike Gesicki $5,000) and handle the majority of the work. Lining up 86% of the time wide, he’ll have a plus matchup regardless of what side of the field he’s on. When healthy, he’s averaged 13 YPR with a 64% reception rate.
TIGHT END
($4,000 and under)
James O’Shaughnessy, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans, $3,200 – The game log doesn’t look pretty for O’Shaughnessy lately but we have reason to be optimistic. The Jags are looking to turn a corner after getting rid of Urban Meyer. James Robinson ($5,400) is going to be a very popular “set loose” candidate this week but we also have to think of some of the other aspects. The Texans have not defended against tight ends well, allowing an average of 14.1 DKFP, 53 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Without Dan Arnold on the field, O’Shaggy has averaged 14.1% of the teams targets in four games. Last week, his 16.2% was tied for the second-best mark in the league.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
($2,800 and under)
Bengals DST, Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, $2,900 – I’m going to cheat a bit here and use a D/ST that’s $100 over the “set” number to write about. I think this is a great spot for the Bengals to get pressure on Teddy Bridgewater ($5,500). He’s been under pressure on 38% of his dropbacks, resulting in just. 59.4% completion, a 76.4% adjusted completion rate and 6.0 YPA. The Bengals have been racking up the sacks lately, with at least two in seven straight games and three of those games with four or more.
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