Ya know, everything was going so smooth for about 14 weeks. Then, Week 15 rolls around and everyone seemingly is dealing with COVID issues. This is going to be a tricky one and we’ll have to pay attention more than ever. With that said, let’s take a look.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Arizona Cardinals (-12.5; -650) vs. Detroit Lions (+460)

Betting trends:
Lions 2021 home record: 1-5
Lions 2021 home record when underdogs: 1-5
Lions 2021 ATS record: 8-5
Lions 2021 ATS record when underdogs: 8-5

Cardinals 2021 road record: 10-3
Cardinals 2021 road record as favorites: 2-0
Cardinals 2021 ATS record: 9-4
Cardinals 2021 ATS record as favorites: 4-4

Another week, another team tabbed as the heavy favorites against the Lions. The Cardinals go on the road to take on the Lions after finding out they’ve lost DeAndre Hopkins for the regular season due to a torn MCL. We’ve seen three games already when Hopkins was out, which gave Christian Kirk ($5,300) a solid bump in the team’s target share. He averaged 20.7% of the targets without Hopkins, while Zach Ertz ($5,400) was also seeing 20%+. They should be the main beneficiaries in this game. Of course, how much Kyler Murray ($7,900) will need to throw the ball in this game will remain to be seen but to the Lions credit, they do cover the spread often, going 8-5. Of those games, they’ve been double-digit underdogs five times and have gone 3-2 ATS in those scenarios. They failed to cover in Week 2 against Green Bay by a score of 35-17 and most recently, last week against the Broncos by a score of 38-10.

The Cardinals make for an excellent teaser leg. Getting them down to 6.5 gets them through a key number and one of the safer teaser legs on Sunday. If you’re reading this early enough, I love pairing them with the Patriots on Saturday to get them to +8.5 on the road against the Colts. As is though, I’m not overly interested in taking the Cardinals at -12.5. They absolutely should win this game and they’ve been covering spreads by an average of +5.3 points, one of the highest in the league. That said, this is one the second time they’ve been double-digit favorites (-20 vs. HOU) and they haven’t been strong covering on the road. Whereas the Lions, as mentioned, do well with double-digit spreads. The Cardinals have bigger fish to fry in the Saturday game next week against the Colts on Christmas Day, where they stand as -4 favorites. Cardinals win but the Lions might be able to cover in this game.

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Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Atlanta Falcons (+320) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9; -425) Over/Under: 47

Betting trends:
Falcons 2021 road record: 5-2
Falcons 2021 road record as underdogs: 3-2
Falcons 2021 Over/Under record: 6-7
Falcons 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 4-4

49ers 2021 home record: 2-4
49ers 2021 home record as favorites: 1-4
49ers 2021 Over/Under record: 7-6
49ers 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 7-4

This is actually the second-highest total on the board after the Cardinals and Lions game but I don’t think we need two write-ups on that. This game checks in with a total of 46 points, which is only a slight uptick from the original 46.5 opening line. The Niners have thrived with the over in this spot as favorites, going 7-4 in that scenario. This team has been cruising offensively as of late, posting 30+ points in three of their last five games, averaging 28.8 in that span. Now they face one of the most generous defenses in the league with the Falcons, who have allowed an average of 27.7 points per game. That ranks them fourth in the league in average points allowed, tied with the Lions. As I write this Friday morning, the 49ers aren’t dealing with any COVID issues (knock on wood) where as the Falcons have OLB Emmanuel Ellerbee, DB Cornell Armstrong and OLB Quinton Bell on the list.

Despite the constant injuries for the Niners with their running backs, they’re running the ball at one of the highest rates in the league. Doing so on 47% of their offensive plays, they’ll enjoy a soft Falcons run defense. This team is allowing an average of 90 rushing yards and just under four yards per carry. Both the Buccaneers and Panthers logged 49 rushing yards each in the last two weeks against the Falcons but the Bucs pass more than anyone in the league. Before that, the Falcons allowed at least 102 rushing yards in six straight games. Amazingly enough, with how much the Niners run the ball, they’re still hitting the over at a high rate. With the way the Niners are scoring and opportunities for the Falcons to capitalize on a banged up secondary, I like the over in this one.

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NFL Week 14 Betting Splits

These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last Updated: Saturday, December 18th, 12:00 p.m.

For the latest updates, be sure to follow my Twitter @SBuchanan24

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NFL Betting Trends

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.

Teams Against the Spread:

Teams Over/Under Records:

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Target Report

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Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets, $5,700 — Honestly, who knows what the player pool will look like come Sunday. As of Friday morning though, I’m loving Tua against the Jets. Yes, this game is projected to be a blowout, as the Dolphins are -9.5 favorites at home. That said, the Dolphins have all of their running backs on the COVID list! Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed and Phillip Lindsay are all currently on the list, as well as Jaylen Waddle. If that means we’ll see Tagovailoa throwing a bit more, I’m all for it. This Jets team has been a disaster defensively (and offensively) allowing an average of 20.1 DKFP, 267 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns to opposing QB’s. Back in Week 11, Tua had a clean pocket to work with on 64.7% of his dropbacks, which saw him complete 91% of his pass attempts for 166 of his 273 yards, a 95.2% adjusted completion percentage and 7.5 YPA.

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Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets, $4,300 — This stack is so ridiculously cheap it’s hard not to like it. After a mult-game absence, Parker returned last week against the Giants and caught all five of his targets for 62 yards and 11.2 DKFP. It only accounted for 12.2% of the overall targets that week BUT, they’ll be without Waddle. In that game, Waddle saw 26.8% of the targets and will leave a big void amongst the receivers. Parker should be the one to benefit the most (along with Mike Gesicki $5,000) and handle the majority of the work. Lining up 86% of the time wide, he’ll have a plus matchup regardless of what side of the field he’s on. When healthy, he’s averaged 13 YPR with a 64% reception rate.

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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.

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