We made it! No more byes, so wave your hands from side-to-side. Dry those eyes, as you can now brush aside the horrible experience of playing Carlos Hyde. But alas, once again we must sigh and take the news in stride that there is a two-game slate on Saturday, which means Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris fall by the wayside and are disqualified from the main slate.
Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point on DraftKings this week, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections are also included.
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Studs
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans, $7,800
Harris has carried the ball 41 times over the last two weeks. On the season, he has seven games with at least 20 rushes. He’s received at least three targets in every game this season, with four games over five. In the red zone, he has 23 rushes and 14 targets. Translation: He is one of the few bell-cow running backs in the league. His 297 touches are tops in the NFL by a wide margin. Harris has scored at least 15.0 DKFP in all but two games this season and has gone over 20.0 DKFP seven times with a high of 31.2 DKFP. The Titans are 22nd in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the 11th-most red zone touches.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 18.1 attempts
Receiving: 5.3 Targets; 4.0 Receptions
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions, $6,400
What’s a guy have to do to get some respect out in these streets? All Conner has done this season is exceed his fantasy point expectation 100% of the time, all while score 14 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns. He has three games with at least 20 carries and is coming off a nine-target game. Fine, Chase Edmonds ($5,100) is likely back this week, so Conner won’t soak up all the opportunities. That said, the ownership level could dip as a result and the matchup is a fantastic one. The Lions are 23rd in rush defense DVOA and the DraftKings Sportsbook has the Cardinals as whopping 14-point favorites, so the game script should be favorable for the run game. Keep in mind that even when Edmonds was healthy, Conner still received 26 red zone carries and produced double-digit DKFP in six of nine contests.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 15.7 attempts
Receiving: 3.8 Targets; 2.9 Receptions
Values
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets, $5,600
Over the last five games, Gaskin has rushed 15, 16, 23, 14 and 20 times while receiving two, two, four, two and six targets, respectively. In the red zone, he’s received a total of 22 carries and three targets. He’s been playing around 60% of the snaps, so he’s far from a bell-cow and, while he’s gone for over 15.0 DKFP in three of those contests, he has two games with less than 10.0 DKFP. That said, the Dolphins are at home this weekend as 8.5-point favorites. The Jets are 30th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the fourth-most targets to running backs, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Gaskin to provide those fantasy goodies. Gaskin was placed on the COVID-19 list last week but, he is fully vaccinated and has a chance for returning for this week. Phillip Lindsay ($4,600) and Salvon Ahmed ($4,000) are also in protocols. Conversely, Malcolm Brown ($4,000) could return and take some goal-line carries, so this is certainly a situation you’ll have to track through the week.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 11.9 attempts
Receiving: 2.8 Targets; 2.2 Receptions
Devonta Freeman, Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers, $5,500
The health of Lamar Jackson ($7,200) will be huge in this one, but Freeman could get busy regardless. Tyler Huntley ($5,400) showed that he was more than capable of leading the offense last week after Jackson went down. Freeman has slowly taken over the Ravens’ backfield. From Week 9 to Week 12, his snap count never exceeded 58%. Then in Week 13, that number climbed to 69% and last week it was at 66%. Freeman has received double-digit carries in six straight games and his has 36 targets for the season as a whole. In the red zone, he has 14 rushes and seven targets. The Packers are 27th in rush defense DVOA.
Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 13.8 attempts
Receiving: 3.6 Targets; 2.8 Receptions
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