Unintentionally went with a theme this week, but here we are.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The over on HIll’s rushing yards prop (54.5) is in play vs. the Jets, as well. New York has the worst overall defensive DVOA, the worst pass defense DVOA and the third-worst run defense DVOA in the league. Hill crushed the over on this prop vs. Dallas last week — although it was a game the Saints needed to play catch-up. That won’t be the case this week.
Still, Gardner Minshew managed to go over this mark comfortably in a 15-point win vs. the Jets in Week 13. He became the 10th quarterback to log at least 235 yards vs. the Jets this season. Tyrod Taylor failed to do so in Week 12, only mustering 158 yards vs. the Jets, and Mac Jones came four yards short of hitting this over back in Week 2 — he then went for 307 vs. New York in Week 7.
After a slow stretch in November, Brady went off for four touchdowns vs. the Falcons. Of course, Atlanta’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL. That’s not the case at all with Buffalo. However, that defense is not the same without Tre’Davious White.
Furthermore, the Bills are in a bit of a tailspin after the Patriots only threw the ball three times and managed to pull out a win in Buffalo. Brady, of course, has always caused problems for the Bills throughout his career. He’s not about to hold back just because they’re struggling — in a time where the Bills thought the AFC East was theirs.
Lastly, Brady has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every home game this season. He’s thrown four or more touchdowns in four of those contests, going under this prop in Tampa Bay’s one other home game.
Fields is going to figure it out at some point, but not on Sunday Night Football against Chicago’s greatest rival. Chicago’s running backs are going to do most of the work if the Bears manage to make this one competitive.
When Fields first got a taste of the rivalry in Week 6, he managed to only throw one interception. But, he also amassed 174 yards through the air. Unfortunately for the Bears, that number isn’t exactly an outlier for Fields. The rookie has only thrown for 200-plus yards twice this season — the only two times he’s hit the over on this prop in 2021.
Only two other quarterbacks have gone below this number this season vs. the Packers. Just a couple of random no-names in Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Now, Wilson’s game was his first back from injury, but he’s had some rough games this year. And Mahomes went under this number again after only logging 166 vs. Green Bay. Still, it’s no small feat to shut down either of those two almost completely.
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