Hello all you hooligans. Welcome to Week 14 is upon is and we’re going to chat about it. So let’s do that.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Denver Broncos (-10; -475) vs. Detroit Lions (+350)
Betting trends:
Broncos 2021 home record: 3-3
Broncos 2021 home record when favored: 2-2
Broncos 2021 ATS record: 6-6
Broncos 2021 ATS record when favored: 4-3
Lions 2021 road record: 0-5-1
Lions 2021 road record as underdogs: 0-5-1
Lions 2021 ATS record: 8-4
Lions 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 8-4
Not sure I’m loving the idea that the Broncos are the biggest favorite on this entire slate. Against the spread, the Lions have been solid going 8-4 overall and this could be a week where they make it 9-4. When the Lions have been double-digit underdogs, they’ve gone 3-1 ATS, covering against the Vikings (+10), Rams (+16.5) and Browns (+13.5). The only game they failed to cover in this scenario was in Week 2 against the Packers (+11.5) and they lost by 18 points. The biggest loss for the Lions is D’Andre Swift ($6,600) who is unlikely to play due to a shoulder injury. That means another week of Jamaal Williams ($5,500) who didn’t need to catch much at all due to the Lions playing with a lead (what?!).
I also like the Lions with how much this game has moved. This originally opened at -8 in favor for the Broncos, dropping down to -7 before it took off into double-digits. The value on the Broncos at this point, especially against a team that have finished four straight games to within a field goal. Both of these teams are slower paced compared to the rest of the league, with the Broncos averaging 62.5 plays per game (20th) and the Lions at 62.2 (21st). Give me the Lions to cover once again.
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5; -165) vs. Buffalo Bills (+145) Over/Under: 54.5
Betting trends:
Bills 2021 road record: 4-2
Bills 2021 road record as underdogs: 1-0
Bills 2021 Over/Under record: 5-7
Bills 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 1-0
Buccaneers 2021 home record: 5-0
Buccaneers 2021 home record as favorites: 5-0
Buccaneers 2021 Over/Under record: 6-6
Buccaneers 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 6-6
All eyes will be on this game as the Bills look to bounce back after an unbelievable loss to the Patriots. This game has the biggest total on the slate by a wide margin, as it’s the only game with a 50+ total and is five points higher than any other game. The Bills, who just faced 38 rushing attempts against them, now face a team that throws more than anyone else, doing so on 68% of their offensive plays. This is also only the second time the Bills have been underdogs this season, as they were in Week 5 against the Chiefs (+2.5) which they won outright by a score of 38-20.
What is leading me to the over is the Buccaneers. The offense at home has been extraordinary, as they average 31.4 points per game overall but 38.4 at home. On the road, this offense averages 26.4 points. Meanwhile, the Bills have been one of the best scoring offenses on the road, averaging 31 points per game (2nd) compared to 25 at home. While Josh Allen ($7,800) could only complete 50% of his pass attempts last week, he should find it much, much easier against the Bucs. I mean, hell, if Matt Ryan is nearly touching 300 passing yards against them, what will Allen reach? For the Bucs, they’ll benefit from the absence of shutdown corner Tre’Davious White. The Bills secondary hasn’t really been tested without him, thanks to the Patriots wide receivers not catching a single ball last week. That’ll change in Week 14 and it’s against one of the best offenses in the league. This number has been trending up but I’d be willing to take the over up to 55.5.
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NFL Week 13 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team, $6,700 — Prescott has had a couple of lackluster performances sandwiched in between a 28.3 DKFP game against the Raiders. I’m expecting more of that Raiders performance this week against the Football Team. Sure, they’re riding a nice four-game winning streak but I’m under the belief it ends here. While the Football Team has a solid pass rush, Prescott hasn’t faced much pressure, only doing so on 30% of his dropbacks. This defense also gives up a ton of production to opposing quarterbacks, as they average 24 DKFP, 274 passing yards and 7.6 YPA. With the Cowboys running game banged up with Tony Pollard ($6,400) a GTD and a lack of efficiency from Ezekiel Elliott ($7,300) the ‘Boys could resort to defeating the Football Team through the air, where they’re weak. Prescott should easily return value on this salary.
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team, $7,200 — This slate really lacks a lot of big named receivers and yet, Lamb doesn’t projected to be highly owned. With plenty of attention on players like Tyreek Hill ($8,500) and Chris Godwin ($7,100), this makes me like Lamb even more. In his return from his concussion, Lamb drew 13 targets of which he made seven catches for 89 yards and ran the ball once for another 33. Lamb continues to dominate the team target share, averaging 22% overall and a season-high 32.5% last week. This Football Team secondary struggles with opposing receivers getting downfield, as evidenced by the 8.7 YPT they’re averaging. With an 11.1 aDOT for Lamb he should be posting some big numbers in this game.
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