Week 13. Let’s continue the routine of trying to predict the unforeseen. Decipher the numbers like a machine. Follow the process like a marine and build the bankroll for Week 14. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games on the main DraftKings NFL slate with an O/U of at least 50 points this week: LAC/CIN (50.5) and TB/ATL (50.5). There are two games with a spread of at least 10 points: LAR (-12.5) over JAX and TB (-11) over ATL.
Seven games kick off at 1 p.m. ET, while four games are in the afternoon window. Let’s dive into the cheaper end of the player pool and find some bargain options for Week 13.
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QUARTERBACK
($6,000 and under)
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Football Team, $6,000 – The Raiders have the 31st run-blocking unit according to PFF. The Football Team is 11th in rush defense DVOA but 30th in pass-defense DVOA so the path of least resistance is through the air for Las Vegas. Now, the Football Team does generate a good pass rush, as they are fifth in that department and the Raiders are 21st in pass blocking, but Carr should pass plenty in this one and DraftKings Sportsbook has this game with a healthy total of 49.5, so both offenses will likely be aggressive in this one. Carr has attempted at least 34 passes in nine games this season with three over 40 and a high of 56. He’s produced at least 20 DKFP six times.
RUNNING BACK
($5,000 and under)
Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets, $4,600 – Over the last two weeks, Miles Sanders ($5,200) has played in 46% and 33% of the snaps while Scott was in on 37% and 51%. Things that make you go hmmmm. Over the last five games, Scott has received double-digit carries in four of those contests and has scored three touchdowns on the ground. He’s also received two, two and three targets over the last three games and has 10 red-zone carries on the season. The Jets are dead-last in rush defense DVOA.
WIDE RECEIVER
($5,000 and under)
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,900 – Lamar Jackson ($7,800) was awful last week, throwing four interceptions. I don’t expect a repeat performance, especially since the Steelers have been vulnerable through the air this season (26th in pass-defense DVOA). Bateman has been playing in 60% to 70% of the snaps normally and is third on the totem pole for targets, so he’s involved. Since being inserted into the lineup, he’s garnered six, six, eight, eight, six and four targets.
DeAndre Carter, Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders, $3,600 – As mentioned in the Carr section, this game has a healthy total and both teams could feast via the air. Like Washington, Las Vegas can get pressure as they are second in that department according to PFF. They are only 20th in coverage, though. Since Week 8, Carter has seen snap counts of 70%, 67%, 75% and 73% and six, six, three and five targets. He’s also received one rushing attempt in each of the last three games.
TIGHT END
($4,000 and under)
Brevin Jordan, Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts, $2,500 – The Colts have the second-best run defense unit and they are favored by 8.5 points, so the Texans will have to pass. The Colts’ defense is especially tough against wide receivers and they funnel targets to the running back and tight ends. On the season, they have allowed the second-most targets to the position and third-most fantasy points on average. Jordan isn’t a world-beater by any means as he’s only played in 28% and 60% of the snaps over the last two weeks, but he has received three targets in each game and converted his lone red-zone look into a touchdown.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
($2,800 and under)
Bengals DST, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $2,800 – The Bengals’ defense doesn’t stand out in any metric but they’ve scored double-digit DKFP in three games this season. They’ve held six teams to 20 points or fewer, racked up 30 sacks, recovered five fumbles, picked off 10 passes and scored one touchdown. Justin Herbert ($6,700) is a great quarterback but he’s thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 21 times this season. This game could be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of dropbacks, so there should be opportunities for sacks and turnovers.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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