Most of Sunday’s betting action is focused on the NFL, but don’t forget about hoops! The NBA is offering up a five-game slate on Sunday, and the action gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite wagers for this slate on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Pick: Under 214.5 (-105)
As usual, I will be rocking with the Sunday afternoon under. That spot is off to a 3-2 start this season, bringing the cumulative record to 381-317-12 dating back to 2006. That’s good for a 55% cover rate and a +6% return on investment, and you’ll take those numbers on such a large sample size.
I think the under makes even more sense than usual given the matchup. The Warriors have been the best defensive team in basketball this season – allowing just 99.9 points per 100 possessions – while the Clippers rank second in defensive efficiency. Both teams average right around 100 possessions per game, so that makes this number feel a bit high to begin with. Add in the fact that both teams were off last night in Los Angeles? Don’t be surprised if both teams look sluggish.
The Pick: Pistons +11
I’m looking into my crystal ball a bit for this pick. LeBron James is currently questionable, and it would not shock me one bit if he ultimately sits. He’s still dealing with an abdominal injury that caused him to miss eight games earlier this year, and the Lakers are coming off a grueling triple-overtime loss in their last outing.
There’s also some bad blood between these teams following the LeBron/Isaiah Stewart confrontation in their last meeting. NBA Twitter will have an absolute field day if LeBron sits in this matchup, but the Lakers can’t let Twitter run their team. They need to do what gives them the best chance of winning a title this season, and you can make a strong case that sitting LeBron in this spot does just that.
The Lakers would still have a sizable talent advantage even without LeBron, but this line would undoubtedly be too high. The Lakers have played 608 minutes without LeBron this season, and they’ve been outscored by -4.4 points per 100 possessions with him off the court.
The Pick: Bobby Portis Over 14.5 points (-105)
Let’s wrap things up with a prop bet. The unofficial mayor of Milwaukee has been balling recently. He’s started the last 11 games for the Bucks, and that should continue for as long as Brook Lopez is sidelined. He’s taken full advantage of his starting role, averaging 17.5 points and 30.8 minutes in those contests. Portis has also hit the over on 14.5 points in seven of those 11 games.
The Pacers are a middle-of-the-pack team defensively, so I have no problem going back to the well with Portis in this spot.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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