It’s Week 12 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to be looking for favorable matchups once again and fading one popular running back. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
New York Jets at Houston Texans
Zach Wilson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140)
This is not the same offense that Zach Wilson left when he was injured in Week 7. Since that date, offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has completely changed the playcalling, leaning more heavily on the pass. New York now ranks ninth in passing yards per game, but more importantly, they’re scoring through the air.
The Jets have thrown for nine touchdown passes in the last four games, and now with Michael Carter (ankle) injured, I think New York might lean even more heavily on the pass against a weak Houston secondary. Getting this kind of price on Wilson to go for two scores is a steal.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor under 79.5 Rushing Yards
I was all in on Taylor gashing a good Bills rushing defense a week ago and shattering the over 79.5 yards. The Buccaneers are a different animal, however, and I’m going to be hitting the under on Sunday.
Tampa is fourth in DVOA against the run this season, and the Bucs have allowed just one runner to go over 73.5 yards this year, which was Khalil Herbert in a big surprise. I suspect the RPO had a little to do with that, and with such a one-dimensional offensive attack for the Colts, Todd Bowles will be game-planning hard against the run. I like Tampa Bay to continue dominating talented backs. This number is inflated and much too high.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
D’Onta Foreman over 45.5 rushing yards
The Titans waived Adrian Peterson this week because they didn’t need him. D’Onta Foreman has looked spry in his short stint in the Titans’ backfield rotation and should be in line for a heavy workload on Sunday as the clear-cut every-down back.
Peterson saw 19% of snaps in Week 11, and one would assume those all go to Foreman as the bruising back. That would put him in line for close to 40% of the team’s offensive snaps judging by the breakdown on Sunday. Dontrell Hillard did see more than both RBs, but he carried the ball just seven times, which would indicate Foreman is still in the mix for the majority of hand-offs.
The Patriots have been good against the run, but they are ninth in rushing yards against per game, not first. This is a pretty huge show of respect from the oddsmakers, considering plenty of backs — D’Ernest Johnson, most recently — have had success on New England. Tennessee should be in this game, meaning it will run throughout, and its offensive line is more than capable enough of getting the push needed for Foreman to have a good game.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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