With the Week 12 slate taking place the same week as Thanksgiving, only 10 games are on the main. We’ll talk about them, have a great time and get you ready to win some money.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
New England Patriots (-6.5; -265) vs. Tennessee Titans (+215)
Betting trends:
Patriots 2021 home record: 2-4
Patriots 2021 home record when favored: 2-2
Patriots 2021 ATS record: 7-4
Patriots 2021 ATS record when favored: 5-3
Titans 2021 road record: 4-1
Titans 2021 road record as underdogs: 3-0
Titans 2021 ATS record: 7-4
Titans 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 5-0
What a game we have at Gillette Stadium Sunday afternoon. We have the surging Patriots going up against a suddenly struggling Titans team. The Titans are coming off one of the biggest upsets of the season, as they were beaten by the Texans, 22-13. Meanwhile, the Pats are riding a five-game winning streak that’s seen them average 35 points and allow just 10 over that span. Two teams that are going in complete opposite directions and could really shape the AFC playoff picture.
The Titans have been a very profitable team to bet on this season. The 5-0 ATS record as underdogs is remarkable and they’ve made these games count. In these games as underdogs, they’ve covered by an average of 14.3 points. In fact, before the two game slide, they covered and won outright against the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams before falling to the Saints and Texans (as favorites). So what’s happening to this team? Have the injuries finally caught up? Julio Jones and Derrick Henry will remain out while A.J. Brown ($7,100) is dealing with a chest injury. If Brown was out, the Titans would be missing three players that make up for 52.2% of the teams total touches. The Patriots are always famous for taking out a teams best option and at this point, who would that even be?
Speaking of the Patriots, this team has been a defensive monster lately. Holding opposing teams to just 13 total points in the last three games will earn you that moniker. They’ve been getting plenty of pressure on the quarterback as well, registering at least two sacks in in four of their last five games. That’s not great news for Ryan Tannehill ($6,100) who has been under pressure on 33% of his dropbacks. While under pressure, Tannehill averages one of the lowest yards per attempt amongst qualified quarterbacks at 5.3 yards. He’s also tied the league lead in interceptions thrown while under pressure with six. Can you guess which defense is leading the league in interceptions by three? I don’t think I need to tell you, right? Unless we see a total 180 by the Titans at this point, it’s the Patriots for me and one of the better 6-point teaser legs you can get on Sunday at it’s current -6.5 number.
Other notable favorites: Cincinnati Bengals (-210; -4.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+175)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3; -155) at Indianapolis Colts (+135) Over/Under: 52.5
Betting trends:
Buccaneers 2021 road record: 2-3
Buccaneers 2021 road record as favorites: 2-3
Buccaneers 2021 Over/Under record: 5-5
Buccaneers 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 5-5
Colts 2021 home record: 3-3
Colts 2021 home record as underdogs: 0-2
Colts 2021 Over/Under record: 7-4
Colts 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 5-2
This is a total I’m really struggling with. The Colts have been one of the best teams in the league at hitting the over and have done so in four of their last five games. That said, they face a team that has done so in just one of their last five. The Bucs covered the over in the first three games of the season but have gone just 2-5 with the over since. Now we have a total of 52.2, which has trending upwards since Wednesday afternoon. On Tuesday, it got down to as low as 50, which is unlikely to see again. With that said, I think the under is in play at the current 52.5 total.
The Colts overall success can be attributed to Jonathan Taylor ($9,100). When a running back is scoring three touchdowns in a game, let alone five, that gets heads turning. The unfortunate part is, Taylor should have been getting plenty of love much earlier. He’s posted five games where he’s averaged 5.5 YPC or higher this season. All of those games saw him carry the ball no less than 15 times except one. He’s also been very successful against tough run defenses like the Bills, Jaguars and Ravens. The Bucs come into this game with a very solid run defense but it’s not something Taylor hasn’t been able to overcome before. Needless to say, this team is allowing an average of 3.5 YPC, 56 rushing yards and just four rushing touchdowns. Only one team, the Chicago Bears, have gone over 100 rushing yards as a team. If the Colts continue to use Taylor as much as they have, which is 53 carries in his last two games, it’ll keep Tom Brady ($7,600) off the field and slow this game down. At this current total, I think the under is the play here.
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NFL Week 12 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, $6,600 — Despite scoring 38.28 DKFP last week against the Steelers, Herbert saw his salary go DOWN $100 for Week 12 against the Broncos. It’s been a bit of a hit or miss season for the quarterbacks sophomore season but this is a fantastic matchup to keep that momentum up. The Broncos secondary is a far cry from what we saw at the beginning of the season and this has been a team you can target against. The Broncos pass rush is also nearly nonexistent, which will suit well for Herbert. Working with a clean pocket, Herbert has 82% adjusted completion percentage (T-5th) 8.1 YPA (9th) and 19 (3rd) of his 22 passing touchdowns. The -2.5 spread in favor the Chargers indicates this could be a close game, which works in favor of Herbert seeing as the Chargers pass on 64.1% of their offensive plays (5th).
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, $7,400 — Allen has regained his role as the WR1 in this offense. After Mike Williams ($5,700) started off the season as Herbert’s number one target, Williams has averaged just 5.5 targets over the past four games while Allen sits at 12. In those games, Allen has gone over 100 yards twice but has only scored once. This week, he’ll draw coverage against CB Kyle Fuller, when operating out of the slot. Fuller has been targeted against 38 times allowing 20 receptions (52.6% catch rate) 16.3 YPR and three touchdowns against. Amongst qualified corners, the 16.3 YPR is one of the highest averages in the league, which is currently held by CB Marshon Lattimore at 19.8. With the volume that Allen is receiving in this matchup, he has a great chance to be one of the top receivers of the week.
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