It’s Week 11 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to be looking for favorable matchups once again and fading one popular quarterback. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Tua Tagovailoa over 253.5 Passing Yards
It’s pretty impossible not to take quarterback props against the Jets every week. This secondary ranks dead last in terms of DVOA in football and stands 31st with 283.2 passing yards allowed per game.
While Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t exactly wow you with his arm, the Dolphins do rank inside the top three in football in the percentage of pass plays they’ve run per game. That’s mostly due to the fact that their defense has underwhelmed this year, but considering the Jets rank 11th in passing offense and have come to life on that side of the ball, this has the potential to be a shootout with plenty of passing.
Tagovailoa should throw the ball enough to get to this number against a soft secondary.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Jonathan Taylor over 73.5 Rushing Yards
You might call me crazy for this one, but hear me out. The Bills have only faced one running back this year who is anywhere near as good as Taylor, and that man was Derrick Henry. Back in Week 6, Henry toppled over this highly-ranked rushing defense to post one of his best games of the season, amassing 143 yards and three touchdowns.
While Henry did break off a 76-yard run in that one, perhaps inflating his total a bit, he was living proof that you can succeed against this front seven. The Bills are likely a bit overrated due to some of the weak rushing attacks they’ve faced, and on the other side, Taylor has succeeded against some decent defenses. I like him to get over this number for the sixth time this year.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes under 312.5 Passing Yards
This could backfire on me, but don’t you think this number is a little out of line? The Chiefs certainly looked to be back with a mammoth win over the Raiders, but to that point, Mahomes had looked bad and this offense had struggled big-time.
One of the main reasons so many are bullish on the Chiefs going forward is the return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who initially seemed like a replaceable player but appeared more and more valuable as the weeks went on and losses piled up. Kansas City welcomes him back this week and should lean on him quite a bit considering the Cowboys are 18th in DVOA against the run and third against the pass.
That’s right, this is a top-five passing defense. It’s been great all year, and now we’re hanging this kind of number on Mahomes? I think this is a good spot to identify the overreaction and sell high.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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