All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I gave this one out at +3.5 on Twitter, hinging off the news that Joel Embiid would rest for this game. I suppose there’s an outside shot Portland rests a vet for this game, but I was shocked to see this one re-open with the Blazers as a dog. They are coming off a loss last night and playing an east coast back-to-back, but this opens up a huge bounce-back opportunity. The line is a little fishy at this point, but it doesn’t seem like enough of an adjustment has been made going from +5 to +2 here. I’ll gladly take the points here with Embiid sidelined.
With Embiid out, this opens up a good opportunity for Harris to have a big night at home against Portland. Embiid’s absence is an obvious factor, but we also need to pay attention to the boosts Harris has seen so far in six games without Ben Simmons. Harris’ rebounds are up by 2.2 per game from last season and assists up by 0.7. Remove Embiid from the equation, and there’s the potential for even more boards and usage on the offensive end. These trends are consistent to last season, as Harris did average just over two rebounds and 1.6 more assists per game with Simmons off the floor. Last year Harris also saw a significant jump in his scoring with Embiid off the floor, averaging 22.2 points in games he missed. I’m thinking something along the lines of a 25/10/5 line here gets the job done comfortably.
NYK/MIN ML Parlay — Play at -130 or better
This is another play I was able to get out on Twitter, but the line has since pushed this to the -140 range. Be patient, these numbers move a lot in the NBA, and I think locking in -130 is still obtainable.
The Raptors are off to an impressive start, winning four of their last six after and embarrassing opening night performance. But No. 4 overall pick Scottie Barnes has been a huge part of the success, averaging right around 18 points and nine boards per game. A thumb injury has downgraded the rookie to doubtful for this one, leaving Toronto in a tough road spot against the top seed in the east. The Knicks are 5-1 so far, and have taken care of business night in and night out, outside of one massive dud. I think that was eye opening for the Knicks, and they’ll show up at home for this game.
As for the Timberwolves, we’re laying a lot of juice on them, but they’ve been a solid team. But this is more about how bad the Magic are. Orlando is a mess of developing prospects with no veteran leadership, all traded away at last season’s deadline. Look for the Wolves to do their part at home here.
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