Tonight’s mid-week football appetizer pits the Los Angeles Rams against the Seattle Seahawks, which by all accounts, is actually a really good game. I’m serious. This could have very easily been on NBC, yet we’ll instead see two of the NFC’s premier teams battle it out on a Thursday. After a healthy dose of the Jaguars last week, I’m not complaining for a single second.
Let’s break down everything you’ll need to know for this contest from a Showdown perspective.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Matthew Stafford ($17,100 CP) - Not only is this a great matchup for Stafford, but the former first-overall pick has been playing out of his mind since being traded to Los Angeles. Stafford enters Week 5 sitting second in the NFL in touchdown passes (11) and fourth in passing yards (1,220). He’s also one of only four qualified quarterbacks averaging at least 0.70 DKFP per drop back, which makes sense given that he leads everyone in net yards per pass attempt through four games (8.6). In short, we’re truly seeing what Sean McVay can accomplish on offense with an above-average pivot. I’d look for the good times to keep rolling on Thursday, as Seahawks D/ST ($2,800) ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. The unit has surrendered a whopping 8.0 yards per opponent pass attempt the past three weeks, as well, the second-highest mark in the NFC.
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($12,600 CP) - We’re doubling down on Rams captains, as Henderson is truly one of a dying breed in the NFL. The running back has been healthy for two full games in 2021: Week 1 versus Chicago and Week 4 versus Arizona. In those two contests — despite completely opposite game scripts — Henderson logged 91.7% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps and received 85.7% of the team’s carries. If you’ve only been watching football for the past half-decade and are confused by what’s going on, that is what used to be called a “bell cow” back. They were thought to be extinct. Henderson has also been heavily involved in the passing attack, as the third-year RB has registered 11 targets in his past two starts. That element of Henderson’s skill-set could be extremely important in this matchup, as Seattle’s conceded a league-worst 8.0 yards per target to opposing backfields. The Seahawks are giving up the most DKFP per game to opposing running backs, too.
Value FLEX Plays
Van Jefferson ($4,800) - While Robert Woods ($7,600) owners have primarily taken out their frustrations in 2021 on Stafford and Cooper Kupp ($12,400), Jefferson is certainly part of the problem. Last year’s season-round pick is beginning to really find a place in this Los Angeles offense, coming into Week 5 second on the team in receiving yards (226) and with at least six targets in back-to-back contests. Remember, this is a McVay system, that means a whole lot of 11 personnel, and Jefferson’s reaped the rewards. The sophomore has played 76.2% of the Rams’ offensive snaps through four games, never seeing fewer than 65% of his team’s snaps in any individual week. His aDOT of 13.8 yards is also a positive, as Jefferson appears to have become a very credible deep threat.
Editor’s Note: Seahawks RB Chris Carson (neck) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Rams.
Travis Homer ($1,000) - It’s looking more and more like Chris Carson ($6,600; neck) is not going to play in tonight’s game, after the RB was unable to log a single practice leading into this matchup with the Rams. That would likely leave the Seahawks with three running backs on the active roster: Alex Collins ($3,200), DeeJay Dallas ($600) and Homer. Well, this exact scenario occurred one time in 2020, a Week 9 contest with Buffalo where both Carson and Carlos Hyde were unavailable. In that game, it was Homer who led the trio in snaps (31), while he was also on the field for 10 of the team’s 12 third down plays. Homer is clearly the RB on this roster that’s most useful in the passing attack, and in a script where I could see Seattle playing from behind, I think we could see a repeat of last season’s workload. It doesn’t hurt his viability that Collins will almost certainly be the chalk, too.
Fades
DK Metcalf ($10,200) - Maybe Metcalf’s viability can no longer be questioned in a matchup with the Rams after the wideout caught a pair of touchdowns in the Seahawks’ Wild Card loss to Los Angeles last year; however, if I’m being honest, I’m still very afraid of Jalen Ramsey. In the two meetings between these two teams in the regular season in 2020, Metcalf was limited to just a single catch for 11 yards on four targets when in direct coverage by Ramsey. The corner is simply the best in football and if he’s going to be shadowing Metcalf for most of Thursday evening, I wouldn’t blame Russell Wilson ($11,800) for looking in another direction. Obviously, Metcalf has the talent to overcome any defender, yet with a price tag above $10K, you’re really risking a lot of salary in a less than ideal situtation.
THE OUTCOME
There was a time when I people would have been rioting in the streets to get a chance to bet the Seahawks as home underdogs, but that time has passed. Heck, if you include playoff losses to the Rams and the Cowboys, Seattle is actually only 11-8 in its past 19 home games — a decent record, but a far cry from the glory days of the 12th Man. The Seahawks are also really struggling within their own division, as they’ve dropped seven of their last 10 contests against NFC west foes. Knowing that, it shouldn’t come as a shock that the Rams are 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings with Seattle.
Final Score: Los Angeles 31, Seattle 24
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (LAR vs SEA)
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