Tonight, we get a battle of two teams whose names I constantly get wrong. Generally, both have resided in California, but that’s not even the case anymore, which is a headache for pretty much anyone who learned all the NFL teams by playing a thousand hours of Tecmo Super Bowl in the late 1990s. Anyway, [triple-checks notes] we’ve got the Las Vegas Raiders squaring off with the Los Angeles Chargers to finish up Week 4.
Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Derek Carr ($16,200 CP) - I think it would be fair to classify Carr as a low-risk Captain’s pick on Monday night. At least that’s how I view a QB who entered Week 4 leading the NFL in passing yards (1,203) and leading the AFC in drop backs (147). There’s just a certain level of volume that you can expect from Carr in this offense, and with weapons like Darren Waller ($9,200) and Henry Ruggs III ($6,400) able to stretch the field, there’s a certain level of upside, too. Carr’s viability at 1.5x value also speaks to the balance of the Raiders’ skill-position assets through three games. Five players have double-digit receptions, but no one has more than 20. Four players have 200-plus receiving yards, but no one has more than 250. Heck, if Josh Jacobs ($7,600; ankle) is active this evening, Las Vegas could be rotating three different RBs in the backfield. It creates a dynamic where Carr is truly the lone standout performer on most slates.
Keenan Allen ($13,200 CP) - I understand why this price tag is what it is; however, that doesn’t mean I have to agree with it. Allen has technically been outproduced by teammate Mike Williams ($10,200) through the first three games of the season, with Williams leading the Chargers’ receiving corps in receptions (22), yards (295), receiving touchdowns (4) and DKFP per contest (26.8). Still, if you look deeper than the surface numbers, you’ll quickly see than Allen remains the No. 1 wideout for Justin Herbert ($11,200). Allen not only leads Los Angeles’ WRs in snap share (85.8%) and targets (33), but he actually came into Week 4 leading the entire NFL in red zone targets with eight — a number that translates to a whopping 38.2% target share inside the 20 yard-line. Allen’s touchdowns are coming, and when they do, his salary will be back up above $10K. Take advantage while you can.
FLEX Plays
Peyton Barber ($6,800) - Barber’s value will ultimately come down to the status of the aforementioned Jacobs, as I don’t want to touch this backfield in DFS if all three Las Vegas RBs are active. However, if Jacobs is unavailable, this is suddenly a pretty modest price for an asset that could see 20-plus carries. It’s an even more modest price when you consider the matchup. Los Angeles has been ripped apart by opposing rushing attacks so far in 2021, with the team ranking 31st in the league by DVOA against the run. If you’re worried that advanced metric hasn’t translated into actual fantasy-applicable statistics, don’t fret. The Chargers have surrendered an NFL-worst 5.8 yards per carry and the fourth-most DKFP to opposing RBs. Considering Barber effectively logged 56.6% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps with Jacobs sidelined last weekend, I don’t see why the coaching staff would reduce his role on Monday.
Jalen Guyton ($2,400) - Without question, I have a “type” when it comes to low-salary fliers in a Showdown setting. Let’s call it: MVS Syndrome. Essentially, I’m looking for an asset that can pay off their price tag in a single play. Someone who is known as a “home run hitter” in DFS circles. Well, Guyton is that guy on this slate. Guyton only has eight targets and five catches in Los Angeles’ first three games of the season, yet he showed the type of big-play threat he can be in 2020, when the 24-year-old averaged 18.3 yards per reception with a massive 16.3-yard aDOT. It’s also not like Guyton isn’t seeing the field. The Chargers love operating out of a three wide-receiver set — Brandon Staley is a Sean McVay disciple after all — and Guyton’s logged a 66.1% snap share in 2021. The opportunity is there for a big moment.
Fades
Mike Williams ($10,200) - This wasn’t a factor when discussing Allen due to his modest price, but on paper, this should be a pretty tough matchup for the Chargers receivers. The Raiders come into Monday allowing the fifth-fewest yards per opponent pass attempt (5.9), while also holding opposing WRs to the fourth-fewest yards per target (7.1). Meanwhile, Williams is just simply due for some regression to the mean. All three catches the wideout has made in the red zone have been converted into touchdowns, and Williams’ overall catch rate of 71.0% seems perilous considering he’s registered a mark well below 60% each of the past two seasons. In most builds, you’ll only have room for one of Williams and Allen. I’ll be rostering the latter on Monday evening.
THE OUTCOME
I don’t want to be the person constantly looking for the negatives in a positive situation, but as each week passes, the Raiders’ wins over the Steelers and the Dolphins are looking less and less impressive. Not to mention how odd their OT victory over the Ravens was. In the end, despite their 3-0 record, I’m still just not that captivated by this Las Vegas team. I think the Chargers have more talent on both sides of the ball and leave Week 4 with a 3-1 record and a share of first place in the AFC West.
Final Score: Los Angeles 27, Las Vegas 20
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (LV vs LAC)
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