The Blackhawks enter this game allowing 4.3 goals per game. They’ve been one of the worst teams at 5v5 this season in terms of allowing scoring chances at even strength and face a Hurricanes team who ranks fourth in goals per game and carries the fifth-best power-play. The Canes are also likely to give starter Frederik Anderson a break here in net making this a good spot for the Blackhawks to grab us a few goals too. The over here looks good.
Chychrun enters this game without a point on the season. The American has been producing in other areas for fantasy but as a player who averaged 0.73 points per game last season, this has been about as disappointing a start from a real life perspective as we could have imagined. The Capitals’ offense has been fantastic to begin the season but their defense has shown some cracks and they enter this game ranked just 24th in penalty-kill efficiency. Chychrun is obviously “due”, but the plus money on the over is what we should be focused on here. Take the over on Chychrun in a spot where the Coyotes’ offense could get on the board with a few goals.
Top Line Stack
Las Vegas vs. Anaheim Ducks
William Karlsson ($5,200) — Reilly Smith ($4,900) — Jonathan Marchessault ($5,400)
The Vegas Golden Knights enter this game without a power-play goal through seven games. Somehow, the team still has three wins despite the inefficiency, but you know this has been a huge focus of the Golden Knights’ coaches over the last couple of days. With their top two wingers still out of action, the players to drag this team out of special teams hell will be the trio of Karlsson, Smith and Marchessault—who have remained together as a unit even with the injury issues facing the team.
Jonathan Marchessault finally got on the board in the Knights’ last game with his first tally in five games and comes in averaging 2.5 shots on net on the year. Line-mate Reilly Smith has been even more productive with shots on goal, averaging 3.5 shots for the season. Smith’s shot percentage has fallen to 4.2% on the season, which is about 8% under his career average. Smith’s breakout is coming and this pair could certainly get off here against a Ducks team who has given up the third-most scoring chances on the season. I’d also expect the Vegas power-play to get on track here as the Ducks rank in the bottom half of the league in penalty-kill, and confirmed starter John Gibson ($7,000) has posted a sub .900 save percentage in three straight games. Stack the Golden Knights’ top-unit, who represent good value considering the opponent.
Superstar to Target
Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes vs. Chicago Blackhawks ($7,500)
Andrei Svechnikov comes into this game averaging 4.0 shots on net per game and with six goals in six games. There’s been few players hotter than him to start the season, and tonight the Hurricanes face the Blackhawks, a team that is going through a myriad of on ice and off ice issues at the moment. Both of Chicago’s goalies enter this game with save percentages under .900 and the Blackhawks may also be hampered with depth issues up front now as Patrick Kane and Henrik Borgstrom look likely to miss this game. The Canes’ power-play is operating at the fifth-best percentage in the NHL so far, so pairing Svechnikov with either Sebastian Aho ($7,400) or point-man Tony DeAngelo ($5,200) is an easy stacking option. Carolina is projected with a 3.6 implied goal total on this slate, so the goals should be flowing here, making Svechnikov a great pay-up option at under $8K.
Value on Offense
Lucas Raymond, Detroit Red Wings vs. Florida Panthers ($5,100)
Rookie Lucas Raymond has been a solid offensive catalyst for the Red Wings this season. On top of averaging over a point per game thus far he’s also averaging over 2.0 shots on net and has been installed in a first-line role across from the Red Wings top center Dylan Larkin ($6,500). Detroit has taken a step forward as an offense this season and actually ranks ninth in expected goal rate as a team entering this game. Raymond takes on a Panthers team who might be a touch distracted after the resignation of their head coach, but Raymond makes for a solid value at $5,100 regardless, just based on his short-term output and salary level today.
Kaapo Kakko, New York Rangers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets ($3,100)
Kakko is set to return to the Rangers’ lineup today after a brief stint on the IR. The winger will be inserted into a second-line role and if we’re going off his small sample size from earlier this season, Kakko looks like a tremendous value pick at just barely over $3,000. The Finn played over 17 minutes of ice time in each of his first two games and landed five shots on net in the Rangers’ opener. He should be playing alongside Artemi Panarin ($6,300) and makes for a great cheap punt play given the opportunity and fact he’ll be up against the Blue Jackets, who allow the fifth-most shots on net thus far.
Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets ($7,900)
The Rangers are listed as -180 favorites tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook, making Shesterkin a solid target at under $8,000. The Rangers’ netminder did allow five goals in his last start, but he still stopped 32 pucks against Calgary and has now seen 32 or more shots against in three of his five starts on the season. Regardless of who starts for the Rangers (Alexandar Georgiev is also an option), this is a good spot to deploy one of the Rangers’ young goalies as the team is getting healthier, with a couple of forwards due back in the lineup today, and Columbus is a team that averages over 32 shots on net—so we should have heightened save projections for the Rangers’ goalies in this spot. Shesterkin likely bounces back with a big game if he gets the call.
Thomas Greiss, Detroit Red Wings vs. Florida Panthers ($7,200)
If you’re looking for a low-priced goalie to take a shot with tonight, I don’t hate the prospects for the Red Wings or Thomas Greiss. Florida is 7-0-0 to start the season but are now dealing with the resignation of their head coach. Greiss has started the year well, posting a .926 save percentage or better in three of four starts. Detroit’s offense also looks more potent this season, and long-term, that should allow them to eke out more games against elite opponents. Greiss won’t cost much but makes for a good low-owned leverage play against what should be popular targets in the Panthers’ top-six.
Value on Defense
Jamie Drysdale, Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights ($4,300)
The Ducks have committed to using rookie Jamie Drysdale as their main power-play quarterback and it’s led to solid fantasy production for the rookie through three weeks. Drysdale is averaging over 3.0 blocked shots + shots on net per game and also averaging well over 20 minutes of ice time per contest as well. The Golden Knights have sagged a bit on special teams to begin this season and come in with the 13th worst penalty-kill unit thus far. The Ducks’ offense has some solid young players up front and they’ve managed a 27.2% conversion rate on the power-play this season (seventh-best in the league). Drysdale looks like solid value tonight in a game where the upstart Ducks also look like live underdogs at a big +190 price on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Adam Fox, New York Rangers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets ($6,000)
On a night where the Rangers take on the Blue Jackets—a team who comes in with the 11th worst penalty-kill in the league—Rangers power-play specialist Adam Fox sets up as a solid value here. Fox is typically priced up over $6,500 against weak opponents but does come into this game with a slightly depressed price, after having been held under 10.0 DKFP in four of his last five starts now.
Fox has had a couple of slow games where the Rangers’ power-play didn't get much usage but remains a high usage defenseman (averaging over 24.4 minutes per game) and is facing a team that allows the fifth-most shots on net. I nearly made the Rangers’ PP1 my top stack of the night, but if you do want some exposure, paying up for Fox not only gives you a player with a great floor, but with good offensive upside.
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