A clean sweep with my picks in Week 7 improved my record to 13-8 for the season. Week 8 presents an interesting group of underdogs with a lot of close spreads added to three double-digit underdogs. Let’s focus on three of them that could prove to be profitable.
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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: Titans +2.5
The Colts have righted the ship after losing each of their first three games. They’ve won three of their last four contests, with their only defeat coming at the hands of the Ravens. Last week, they overcame the pouring rain to defeat the 49ers, 30-18. The improved play of Carson Wentz has been a big reason for their recent turnaround, given he has eight touchdown passes and no interceptions over their last four games.
One of the Colts’ three losses to start the season came vs. the Titans. That game was in Tennessee, and the Titans emerged with a nine-point win. The Titans have a few big wins under the belts, defeating the Bills and Chiefs in the last two weeks. With both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones expected to play, with Derrick Henry continuing to dominate on the ground, look for the Titans to defeat the Colts again.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks: Jaguars +3.5
The Jaguars had plenty of time to relish in their first win of the season, following up a Week 6 victory vs. the Dolphins with their bye. In that victory, James Robinson rushed 17 times for 73 yards and a touchdown. After inexplicably limiting his touches over their first two games, Robinson has received at least 15 carries in each of their last four contests. He’s made the most of the added work, turning them into 388 yards and five touchdowns.
Robinson’s production is worth noting because the Seahawks have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the league. To complicate matters, their offense has gone stagnant with Geno Smith at the helm, totaling 30 points across his two starts. If Robinson can control the game on the ground, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Jaguars win this game outright, let alone cover.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Dolphins +14
This is a big number, but when these two teams met in Week 2, the Bills won 35-0. With that being said, it’s tough to discern too much from that contest given Tua Tagovailoa had to leave early with an injury. Jacoby Brissett replaced him, and the Dolphins had a difficult time scoring under his watch, regardless of their opponent.
Now that Tagovailoa is back, the Dolphins offense is much more dangerous. He kept them within three points in both games since he returned, throwing for a total of 620 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. An injury to running back Malcolm Brown (quadriceps) might actually improve their chances of keeping this game close, given the coaching staff might finally have to give Myles Gaskin the ball more. With Brown getting hurt last week vs. the Falcons, Gaskin had 15 carries for 67 yards while also adding a receiving touchdown. There’s a chance the Dolphins can at least remain somewhat competitive against their divisional foes.
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