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NASCAR Best Bets: Motorsports Picks, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville

Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Xfinity 500, which starts on October 31 at 2:00 p.m. ET.

If it seems like the NASCAR Best Bets hit every week, it’s because they do. This article has picked the winner in five of the last six races (excluding the plate race). The week before the current streak began, the bets just missed at Darlington and that was following correct picks at Indy and Michigan. If you’re wondering what happened with the picks before Michigan, the answer is this that the article didn’t exist. This became a weekly article late in the summer, and has crushed ever since.

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Ryan Blaney to Win (+700)

Twice, Blaney has almost won at Martinsville, most recently in the spring. Anyone that watched the spring race knows that Blaney had by far the best car. His short run speed wasn’t great, but he was able to hold off strong short-run cars. On the long run, no one was in his zip code. So what gives, why didn’t he win with such a great car? On the last pit stop, an air hose got caught on his tire when exiting and Blaney was penalized for removing equipment from the box. He was sent to the back. Without that penalty, Blaney wins the spring Martinsville race with ease.

Alex Bowman to Win (+4000)

This doesn’t seem like a Bowman track, but what is a Bowman track? Was Richmond a Bowman track? He ran inside the top 5 all race long at Richmond, and closed out with a great pit stop and restart and won that high horsepower, low downforce race. He performed a similar feet at Dover in this same 750 package. Dover is a very different track, but Richmond is a short, flat track and is in the same comparison group as Martinsville. More importantly, Bowman had a top-5, if not top-3 car in the spring Martinsville race, but he got collected in the massive pileup wreck in stage 3 that took out nearly half of the field. If he would have avoided that wreck, it is possible that he could have capitalized at the end of the race similar to his Richmond and Dover wins.

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All Hendricks Motorsports Cars to Finish in the Top 10 (+500)

Martinsville is a special track for Hendrick for a number of reasons. This track receives a lot of R&D focus, and the extra attention has bore fruit over the last three decades. Chase Elliott won this race last fall and finished second this past spring. Bowman was mentioned above. William Byron nearly won this race in the fall of 2019, finished eighth in the 2020 spring race and fourth in the spring 2021 race. Perhaps the biggest clue to Hendrick’s dominance at this track is Kyle Larson. Martinsville has been Larson’s worst track on the circuit throughout his career, but in his first race at The Paperclip with HMS, he finished fifth.

Bubba Wallace vs Austin Dillon — Austin Dillon (+105)

Austin Dillon had a top-10 car in the spring race. Remember, last season RCR and Hendrick Motorsports entered into a technical alliance in the middle of 2020. In the 750 package races, the RCR/Hendrick engines were the best to close out the 2020 season — Elliott won the final two 750 package races and the championship. This season, Hendrick is again piling up the wins. RCR may not be winning races, but their Chevys are lightyears ahead of their 2019 cars. Dillon finished the spring race in 14th, but he could have battled for a top-5 finish. That did not materialize because he received a severe one-lap penalty for servicing his car outside of the box on a pit stop.

Bubba Wallace finished worse than Dillon in the spring Martinsville race (16th) despite having the opposite luck. Bubba was two laps down in stage 2 while Dillon was battling inside the top 10. After wave after wave of cautions, and wave around after wave around as the flag man waved the yellow flag 15 times, Bubba not only got back on the lead lap but inherited the lead with fresh tires. He squandered that gift because he’s not a great driver in this package and his car is not a top-10 car.

Bubba Wallace had the 15th best average running position at Martinsville, not too far behind Austin Dillon’s 11th best average running position. However, that was with luck on his side and bad breaks going against Dillon. In a neutral race, Dillon is 10 spots better than Wallace.

Group E — Austin Dillon (+280)

Bonus Pick! If the head-to-head matchup isn’t juicy enough, then let’s throw two more drivers into the mix and boost the odds. Groups E features Ross Chastain +250, Bubba Wallace +260, Chris Buescher +290 and Austin Dillon +280. In the spring race, Austin Dillon turned 108 lap inside the top 10, while Buescher scored 52 laps inside the top 10 and Chastain recorded eight laps inside the top 10. Chastain’s average running position was 24th and is an easy fade in this group. Although Buescher finished better than Dillon in the first trace, his average running position was 16th — much worse than Dillon’s average of 11th.

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.