Fantasy Football Recap: DraftKings NFL DFS Millionaire Results for Week 7 and Preview for Week 8

Each week, we’ll be recapping the decisions of the masses and discerning the takeaways that can be applied to future contests, focusing on topics like game theory and lineup-building strategies, with the hope of giving everyone the tools to become better DraftKings NFL DFS players. In addition to the recap, this article will also function as a “first look” at the next NFL main slate, giving some initial thoughts on the teams and prices.

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Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]

Underwhelming Running Backs in Week 7

The Week 7 NFL slate had many projected blowouts based on the betting lines, and it created some fairly predictable plays in terms of the running back ownership. Darrell Henderson Jr. made his way into 39% of the lineups in the $20 millionaire contest, with seemingly a can't-miss spot at home against the lowly Detroit Lions. The same was considered to be true for Derrick Henry, though for different reasons, as he entered Week 7’s matchup with the porous Kansas City Chiefs run defense after shredding arguing the NFL’s best defense in the Buffalo Bills for 143 yards and three touchdowns in Week 6. Henry came in at 26.7% ownership, and with the Titans beating the Chiefs 27-3, it seemed like a forgone conclusion that Henry would be a significant beneficiary from the extremely positive game script.

In reality, Henderson Jr. wound up producing just 9.4 DKFP while Henry managed just 16.4, both of which were substantial disappointments at their respective prices ($6,600 and $9,200). There were some other chalk duds in Week 7 that shook up the standings — including Calvin Ridley, Chuba Hubbard, and of course everyone on the Chiefs — but it was those two running backs at their lofty ownership numbers that made the greatest impact in DFS contests.

$20 Millionaire Winner

Even though much of the chalk produced extremely poor results in Week 7, there were a few popular players who were nearly must-haves in Week 7. Part of what created Henderson Jr.’s dud was that the Lions didn’t roll over vs. the Rams like many people expected, and the closer game meant increased passing volume for Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing attack. Cooper Kupp was the largest beneficiary, coming up with a massive line of 10 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns, good for 40.6 DKFP. At 19.3% ownership, Kupp wound up being in just about every lineup that contended for first place. Additionally, Chris Godwin got to 28.1 DKFP despite the Buccaneers’ blowout win vs. the Bears, and at 25.9% ownership, he wound up being a nearly essential piece to have, as well.

As seen above, the winning lineup used both Kupp and Godwin, but had a handful of contrarian players from the other less-notable games on the slate. Damien Harris took advantage of a strong matchup vs. the Jets to wind up at 28.3 DKFP, and D’Andre Swift basically accounted for the entire Lions offense with 28.4 DKFP. The other key to this lineup was the salary-saving tight end, Foster Moreau, who stepped up in a big way after Darren Waller was ruled out ahead of the Raiders’ 4 p.m. game vs. the Eagles. Moreau likely would have been a popular target had the Waller news come out ahead of time, but because that news didn’t come until after lock, there were likely far less lineups that made the move to play Moreau. It was an extremely impressive lineup for meaganjoy, who will of course be entered into the DraftKings Championship Series Tournament of Champions, in addition to their $1M top prize.

First Look at Week 8

The Week 8 quarterback landscape appears as though it’ll be a tough one to navigate, as the biggest names like Josh Allen ($8,100), Matthew Stafford ($7,600), Tom Brady ($7,400), Justin Herbert ($7,300) and even Joe Burrow ($7,100) have all seen substantial prices increases from previous weeks. This could be a week where a significant priority is placed on cheaper QBs, with Mac Jones ($5,200) standing out as likely chalk for a decent matchup in Los Angeles vs. the Chargers.

At running back, Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,500) could very well wind up being the most popular choice for the second week in a row, despite the fact he’s coming off of a single-digit DKFP effort. The Rams are large favorites again, this time vs. the Texans, and it’s probably reasonable to expect a large chunk of the field to be willing to take another shot on a positive game script.

Cooper Kupp ($9,000) has reached new heights on the pricing scale, and it’ll be interesting to see if this exceedingly large salary finally scares people away. It’s another great matchup for the Rams, however, so it’s not inconceivable for Kupp to wind up as a popular pay-up option despite the increasing price tag. Calvin Ridley ($6,600) wasn’t great in Week 7 but will probably be considered a value play again in Week 8, along with Brandin Cooks ($5,700), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,300) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,100), to name a few.

The tight end position is headlined by Kyle Pitts ($6,300), who seems to be rapidly improving after a slow start to his rookie season, though the field will likely be more inclined to target Dallas Goedert ($4,700), who has a much cheaper salary and a great matchup in Detroit vs. the Lions. Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,800) has been a popular target a couple of weeks in a row, too, and that seems likely to continue with his still-cheap price tag.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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