It’s Week 7 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to be looking for favorable matchups once again, and fading a once-great defense from the NFC East. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones under 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
It’s not often you feel good about fading Aaron Jones, but this week is as good as any.
The Washington Football team has had an embarrassingly-bad defense this year, but that hasn’t been a product of its defensive line. Washington ranks 12th in DVOA against the run, and a shocking 28th against the pass. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers would be wise to go to the air here, just as they did when they faced another good rushing defense in the Steelers.
In that game, Jones rushed just 15 times for 48 yards, and a similar script could unfold on Sunday. I’d bet this to 65 yards, but probably no lower than that.
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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa over 250.5 yards (-115)
To no one’s surprise, the Falcons’ defense absolutely stinks. It ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass a year after ranking among the worst secondaries in football, and the front office fumbled away a big chance to improve this unit by taking a tight end with the fourth pick instead of using it to help against the pass.
Ok, rant over. I am not totally sold on Tua Tagovailoa, but it appears the Dolphins still see something in him considering they’ve thrown on over 58% of plays this year, which is about the league average.
Tagovailoa is coming off a monster 329-yard game against the Jaguars, and will see a similarly-bad defense this week. You like to see a low total coming off a game like that, and I think there’s still some time to buy low on Tua.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson Jr. over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
There was much debate prior to the season over who would take over for Cam Akers in the Rams backfield, but there is little doubt now. Henderson was in on 82% of L.A.’s snaps last week, the fifth-most of all backs in Week 6, and now he’ll get set for a favorable matchup with the Lions as the guy for Sean McVay.
Detroit just allowed Joe Mixon and Chris Evans to combine for eight grabs and over 100 yards out of the backfield for the Bengals, and before that they allowed 40 yards on seven catches by the Vikings’ Alexander Mattison. Henderson has averaged almost 10 yards per catch so far this year and has been targeted 16 times in five games. I think he’ll be involved here and should surpass this by a good amount.
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