clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for October 21

Nick Friar gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB betting card.

The Dodgers have their backs against the wall on Thursday. Here’s how to attack this elimination game via DraftKings Sportsbook.

If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.

Editor’s Note: Dodgers RP Joe Kelly will start tonight’s game vs. the Braves.

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

Braves over 3.5 runs -110

On Wednesday, Atlanta’s offense came to life in a way we’ve not yet seen this postseason. Four home runs, three coming between the second and third inning, to put the Dodgers in a tight spot for the rest of the NLCS — which could end on Thursday. But the Braves don’t need to replicate what they did in Game 4 in order to hit this over. Atlanta just needs to do what it’s been doing all series.

After scoring three runs in their Game 1 win, the Braves have scored five-plus runs each night. And they’ve done so against the best the Dodgers have to offer, most recently tagging Julio Urías for five runs over five innings. The L.A. bats could very well put up a fight on Thursday, but Dave Roberts has run out of legitimate bulk-inning options on the mound.

Freddie Freeman, Eddie Rosario and Joc Pederson each have an OPS over 1.000 and wOBA over .430 in the postseason. Austin Riley has a .374 wOBA in the playoffs and a .226 ISO. That’s enough to scratch across four runs against a depleted Dodgers pitching staff again — never mind Adam Duvall, who homered in Game 4, and Atlanta No. 3 hitter Ozzie Albies, who hasn’t hit a homer this postseason.

Braves +125

If you think Atlanta can’t steal two on the road at Dodger Stadium, take a peak at what just happened on the East Coast. Houston went into Game 4 at Fenway down 2-1 with almost no pitching and stole two from the Red Sox. Now, they did have Framber Valdez step up big time, but the Dodgers don’t have someone they can turn to for that type of performance in Game 5.

Instead, they’ll attempt to hold down a clicking Braves offense while their own lineup tries to figure out Max Fried.

After dicing up an underwhelming Milwaukee offense in Game 2 of the NLDS, the left-hander took it to the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS. Fried scattered eight hits in that one, but Will Smith did get the best of him once. Outside of the unavailable Max Muncy, Justin Turner had the best career numbers against Fried of any Dodger coming into this series. But now Turner is out with a hamstring issue, making life easier for Fried after he held the Dodgers to two runs over six innings in a tightly contested Game 1.

Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases +105

For all I said about Fried holding down the Dodgers, that doesn’t mean the entire lineup will go down quietly. If there’s one L.A. hitter who’s going to show some life, it’ll be the leadoff man.

Betts may have gone hitless in Game 4, but that just means he’s one step closer to his next hit. He’s due from a power standpoint, only logging two extra-base hits so far this postseason, but he’s logged five multi-hit games in 10 chances. And since joining the Dodgers, Betts is 13-for-24 in elimination games.

Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Refer a friend and get a free DraftKings Sportsbook bet up to $100! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit (CT).

21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See for full terms and conditions.