Welcome to Week 7, the land of the favorites and home of the byes. The Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Vikings, Steelers and Chargers will all be taking their talents to plug in and recharge for Week 8. As a result, there are only 10 games on the main slate. Perusing the DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cardinals are favored over the Texans by 17.5 points, the Buccaneers by 12 over the Bears and the Rams are listed as 14.5 favorites over the Lions. The Patriots and Packers are also favored by a touchdown and an extra point over the Jets and Football Team respectively. That said, only two games have an O/U of at least 50 - LAR/DET and KC/TEN.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans, $8,400 — This game has a whopping 58 O/U and the spread is 5.5 in favor of the Chiefs. The Titans are sixth in offensive pace while the Chiefs are 13th. Both teams have offensive strengths that match up to the weakness of the opposing defense. Kansas City is fourth in pass DVOA while Tennessee is 21st in pass DVOA. The Titans are fourth in rush DVOA while the Chiefs are 31st in rush DVOA. Points will be scored in this one.
As for Mahomes, he’s thrown at least two touchdowns in every game, and at least three and a high of five in four games. He’s scored 36.28, 28.02, 24.9, 32.72, 21.98 and 27.98 DKFP on the season.
It will all come down to projected ownership as there is always merit to fading a high-rostered player, especially at quarterback. That said, the floor/ceiling combination for Mahomes is one of the highest of the week.
Other Option – Lamar Jackson ($7,400), Matthew Stafford ($7,100) and Jalen Hurts ($6,900)
Value
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. Atlanta Falcons, $5,500 — After missing three weeks due to injury, Tua returned last week and went 33-of-47 for 329 yards, two touchdowns and an interception while rushing three times for 22 yards. That was good for 25.36 DKFP. Granted, it was against the hapless Jaguars defense, which is dead-last in pass DVOA. Do you know what? The Falcons are 30th in pass DVOA.
This game has a healthy O/U of 47.5 and the Dolphins are home dogs by 2.5 points. Points should be scored in this one as the Dolphins are 26th in pass DVOA.
Other Option – Matt Ryan ($5,700), Derek Carr (6,000)
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Running Back
Stud
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $9,200 — The Chiefs are 31st in rush DVOA. Henry has scored three touchdowns in each of the last two games. He’s gone over 100 yards in the last five games. He’s scored 38.6, 34, 28.7, 22.4 and 50.7 DKFP over that span. He’s as close to a lock and load as there is. What could go wrong?
Well, it’s football so he could get tackled short of the goal line with Tannehill sneaking it in. He could get injured. The Chiefs could put 11 in the box.
Henry is a smash play but the price tag and projected ownership have to be included into the calculus.
Other Option – Darrell Henderson ($6,600)
Value
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams, $6,000 – The Rams are going to smash the Lions this week, as they are favored by 14.5 points with an implied point total of 32.75. While the Lions are only implied for 18.25 points, that’s still two touchdowns and they should be chasing points all game long. The Lions haven’t shown to turtle up in games, so an elevated pass rate should be in the works.
While Swift has scored a touchdown on the ground in each of the past two weeks, it’s the passing game involvement that gets us excited. He’s garnered 11, five, seven, six, six and seven targets on the season. The Rams secondary is one of the best in the league and Goff doesn’t go there anyway. He throws to the tight end and running backs. The Rams are 19th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs.
Swift has scored double-digit DKFP in five of six games, has gone over 20 in three and is coming off 17.7 and 22.4 point performances.
Other Options – James Conner ($5,600)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans, $8,600 — If I like Mahomes at quarterback, then you know I’m going to write up his number one receiver. Over the last three games, Hill has received 12, 13 and 12 targets which he has converted into 27 receptions for 325 yards and four touchdowns. He caught 11 for 186 and three touchdowns in one of those games.
There’s not much to say here. Hill is one of the best receivers in the game and can score from anywhere on the field. The game environment is also the juiciest on the slate.
Other Options – Davante Adams ($8,900), Cooper Kupp ($8,400)
Value
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins, $6,600 – Ridley missed Week 5 due to a personal matter, but he’s good to go now. On the season, he’s garnered eight, 10, 11 and 13 targets. While he has yet to crack 100 yards receiving in any game, it’s just a matter of time before he breaks out.
The strength of the Miami defense used to be the secondary, but they are 26th in pass DVOA. It doesn’t help that they are 25th in adjusted sack rate. The Falcons defense is also exploitable and the game has a decent O/U of 47.5, so it could be a back and forth affair.
The price is just too cheap for the expected volume.
Other Options – Quez Watkins ($3,900)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans, $7,600 – Is Kelce on the slate? Yes? Then play him. Fine, DFS isn’t that simple, as lineup construction can resemble a game of Sudoku. That said, Kelce is always in the mix because he has the highest floor/ceiling combo at the position by a wide margin. Did I mention that I like Mahomes this week?
Kelce is essentially a wide receiver and he’s garnered seven, eight, 11, six, 10 and 11 targets on the season. He’s gone over 100 yards twice and missed another by one yard. He has four touchdowns on the season and scored at least 17 DKFP in five of six games with three above 20.
The Titans have been good against tight ends this season, as they are fourth in DVOA, but Kelce is not your normal tight end.
Other Options – Darren Waller ($6,700)
Value
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers, $3,700 – The Packers are favored by 7.5 points and this game has a respectable O/U of 48. More than likely, the Football Team will have to be aggressive to keep pace.
Seals-Jones has played on 100%, 99% and 93% of the snaps the last three games. He’s garnered four, eight and six targets and is coming off a game with four receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown.
The game environment should be a good one while the matchup is great. The Packers are 26th in DVOA against the tight end position.
Other Options – Cole Kmet ($3,000)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Patriots DST vs New York Jets, $3,400 – Bill Belichick against a rookie quarterback? Please and thank you. Fine, Davis Mills did carve up the Patriots defense a couple weeks ago, but Zach Wilson ($5,100) is no Davis Mills. Wait? What?! Regardless, the Patriots still had three sacks and one fumble recovery which translated to 5 DKFP.
Wilson has thrown nine interceptions and been sacked 18 times this season.
Other Option – Tampa Bay ($4,000)
Value
Arizona DST vs. Houston Texans, $3,100 – The Cardinals are favored by a whopping 17.5 points. They are eighth in rush DVOA and second in pass defense. Oh, they are also fifth in adjusted sack rate. They have an interception in each of the last four games with two interceptions in one of those games. They’ve forced seven fumbles, have 17 sacks and held opponents to fewer than 20 points in five of six games.
Other Option – Raiders ($2,900)
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