Two games to go. That’s all that stands between us and the MLB playoffs, which get underway on Tuesday. There are 15 games to choose from on the penultimate day of the regular season, including a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Brewers ML (+125)
This game could not be more important for the Dodgers. They’re two games behind the Giants in the NL West standings with two games left in the season, so they need to win tonight to have any chance of winning the division. The difference between winning the division and the Wild Card is obviously massive, with the division winner getting home field throughout the playoffs and the Wild Card team getting a one-game playoff vs. the red-hot Cardinals.
The Dodgers will have their work cut out for them on Saturday. They’re taking on Corbin Burnes, who is -180 to win the NL Cy Young on DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s been lights out all season, pitching to a 2.29 ERA, 1.56 FIP, and 12.55 K/9. He’s also been at his best when pitching on the road this season, posting a 1.64 ERA and 1.41 FIP.
The Dodgers will have a quality starter of their own on the mound in Julio Urias, but grabbing Burnes at +125 is simply too good to pass up.
Under 9.0 runs (-120)
The Mets hitting the under has joined death and taxes as one of life’s cruel inevitabilities. They’ve been the fourth-most profitable under team in 2021, posting a return on investment of +7.7% and rewarding $100 bettors with more than $1,200 so far this season. The under has hit in three of their past four games, including last night’s victory over the Braves.
The Mets will send Trevor Williams to the mound on Saturday, and while he’s not a particularly strong pitcher, the under has gone 3-1 in his starts for the Mets this season. He could also be facing a slightly weaker Braves lineup than usual. They’ve already clinched the division, and they gave Freddie Freeman the day off yesterday to rest up before the playoffs. He’ll likely suit up on Saturday, but someone like Austin Riley or Ozzie Albies could get the day off instead.
The Braves haven’t announced their plans at pitcher, but it doesn’t really matter vs. the Mets. They’ve struggled against pitchers of all shapes and sizes this season, and that doesn’t figure to change in game No. 161.
Chris Flexen under 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
The Mariners suffered a massive loss vs. the Angels on Friday, and they’re now a game behind the Red Sox for the final AL Wild Card spot. They’re expected to win on Saturday – they’re currently listed as -195 favorites – but the better betting value is with Flexen’s under.
Flexen has had a solid year for Seattle, but he is not a strikeout pitcher. He owns a K/9 of just 6.40, and he’s recorded five strikeouts or less in 20 of 30 starts. He has hit the over on 5.5 strikeouts in two of his past three outings, but those are clear outlier performances. The Angels are simply middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts vs. right-handed pitchers, so I’m happy to bet on some strikeout regression for Flexen on Saturday.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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