The Bills are a very public side in this one, and the big favorites swept the board in the early window on Sunday — something I failed to capitalize on. I’m staying away from the points here and teasing Buffalo down to win the game, which is an easy decision on paper.
The Bills are dominating on both sides of the ball, while the Titans are really struggling on defense. We know about the offense on both sides, but Buffalo is allowing an NFL-best 12.8 points per game, while the Titans are surrendering 26.
I understand that this is a letdown spot for the Bills after the big SNF road win over the Chiefs. However, this is also a revenge spot for Buffalo. The Bills went on the road to Tennessee last year, and despite COVID concerns for the Titans, got smoked 42-16. I think the revenge spot here has the potential to take down from the letdown. That win at KC means nothing if the Bills don’t keep rolling.
As for the Patriots, this team has issues. New England is an embarrassing 0-4 at home, finding ways to blow the games against good teams, while defeating the bad teams. The Pats were able to win road games against the Texans and these very Jets, and I expect them to do so again. The game in the Meadowlands wasn’t much of a contest, and I don’t trust Zach Wilson to make good decisions right now. After another frustrating loss down to the wire against good competition, I think the Pats do bounce-back and respond with their first win of the season in a very favorable matchup.
Buffalo’s passing attack has been elite so far this season, and now goes against the 23rd-ranked passing defense in terms of yards per game. Diggs has gone over this mark in three of his last four games with plenty of margin. He has long yardage receptions of 41 at MIA, 37 vs. HOU and 61 at KC during that span. Diggs is averaging 13.4 yards per reception, and while it’s a small sample, Josh Allen has been going downfield even more in two road games — with Diggs averaging 21.5 yards per reception. I like the matchup here for Diggs to catch another deep one.
This number is shockingly low to me, maybe as an overreaction to Henry not being targeted at all last week. But that number is meaningless to me given the game script against Jacksonville. We know Henry always runs all over the Jags, and finished with a 29-130-3 line in a dominant victory. There was no reason to use him in the passing game. But in the first four games of the season, Henry hauled in 14-of-15 targets for 125 yards. That’s an average of over 31 receiving yards per game, with no fewer than 19 receiving yards in any of the first four contests. In a game where Tennessee projects to play from behind against an elite defense, Henry should be used in the passing game.
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