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It’s Week 6 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to be looking for favorable matchups once again, and fading a favorite defense of mine that plays in the NFC West. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger over 254.5 yards (-115)
I’ll admit, I’m pretty surprised to see this line get bet down a bit by the public. Sure, the overwhelming narrative this year with the Steelers is that Ben Roethlisberger is washed up and can’t throw the football anymore, but that hasn’t really resonated much with the team.
Pittsburgh still ranks fourth in pass play percentage, a year after leading the league in that category, so there’s no reason to believe this team will stop slingin’ it now. That is even harder to see when you consider the Seahawks have the worst secondary in football. While it seems like every week I’m taking an over against this Seattle defense, I do like this one quite a bit given the low number. It’s also encouraging to see Roethlisberger take advantage of his two softest matchups this season — Las Vegas and Cincinnati — shattering this total in both games.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
Joe Burrow over 0.5 interceptions (+105)
I’m also somewhat surprised to see Joe Burrow’s interception prop set at this price. While last year’s No. 1 overall pick has a plethora of talent, he’s had a so-so start to this season. He’s thrown six interceptions, tied for third-most in the league, and his aggressiveness rating according to the NFL’s NextGen Stats sits at 16.6%, ninth in the league.
Detroit’s defense has been surprisingly effective this season and has picked off a pass in each of the last three games. I think this is a prop that should not be sitting at plus money.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Devontae Booker over 46.5 rushing yards (-110)
Do you know which running back topped the NFL last week in snap rate? Alvin Kamara? Derrick Henry? No, Devontae Booker.
That’s right — Joe Judge had no interest in using Eli Penny or Gary Brightwell in light of Saquon Barkley’s injury, he went right to Booker for 88% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Not only is there a shred of doubt surrounding the passing game given Daniel Jones’ concussion last week, there’s also a great matchup on paper. While the Rams are lauded as a great defense, they have been ineffective at stopping the run this season, allowing 117.2 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 19th. Unless there is a dramatic change in the pecking order here, Booker should get this.
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