Here’s where I’m looking on the Week 7 card for college football.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for betting analysis throughout both NFL and CFB season. One quick note if you aren’t following on Twitter, you really need to be. Last week we had Penn State (+110) on the moneyline for 1-unit, which looked good up 17-3 early. But it was obvious when the QB got injured that PSU was not going to be able to hang on and win that game. I tweeted out that we’d be switching sides at halftime, locking up some nice profit on Iowa (+165) for 2-units. While the article will give my favorite plays, we need to keep our heads in the game on Saturday.
Let’s make some money on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Clemson at Syracuse
Syracuse +14.5 (-120)
1.5-Unit Play on 10/13
Obviously, these plays were locked a bit early in the week, and this one now sits at 13.5. I still like that number for Syracuse, but it’d be silly not to get this one to at least 14. Clemson’s defense is solid, but the offense has just been dreadful this season. The Tigers’ season-high is 21 points, which needed the help of a touchdown in overtime. They’re high in regulation is 19 points in their last game, and Clemson is now coming off a bye. If the Tigers turn their season around and look anything close to the team of past years, it happens coming out of the bye. But that’s the only red flag here. And with two losses already, there’s not much to play for with the College Football Playoff out of the question. Syracuse has everything to play for. A massive Friday night home game with the offense and defense both out-performing expectations. A 4-1 ATS team at home against an 0-5 ATS team and we get two touchdowns. I’m in.
Florida at LSU
LSU TT U23.5 (-110)
1.5-Unit Play on 10/13
If you take away two games against far inferior competition, LSU is averaging 23.75 points in its four games against legitimate competition. That said, the Tigers lost their best offensive weapon by far — Kayshon Boutte, who’s hauled in nine touchdowns, is on the shelf for the season. LSU is coming of a couple of very disappointing SEC losses, essentially ending their season. Without their top weapon to move the ball, I have no idea how they score on Florida. The Gators are allowing just 16.5 points per game, and that includes giving up 31 to Alabama. I can’t see LSU having an above average offensive game here.
Kentucky at Georgia
1H UNDER 24 (-120)
1.5-Unit Play on 10/13
The Georgia defense continues to dominate, giving up 5.5 points per game through six contests. Kentucky isn’t to shabby on the defensive side of the ball either. With the game total at 44.5, there seems to be a bit of value here. Yes, Georgia is favored by more than three touchdowns, which generally means they pound the air out of the ball in the second half, which is why we see the difference in the totals by half. But the Wildcats should have a tough time putting up any points in this first half, and I don’t think the Bulldogs will be able to run up the score like they usually do. Something like 17-3 at half feels about right, if that.
Ole Miss at Tennessee
Ole Miss -2.5 (-120)
2-Unit Play on 10/13
This number touched 3.5 and I’m pretty surprised to see it go back the other way. We should see a lot of points in this game, and Tennessee seems to have turned a corner offensively. The Vols are a much better team than we had them ranked as of a couple weeks ago, but let’s not sell the Rebels short. Ole Miss’ only loss is to Alabama, and still has a chance to put together a terrific season. Until they slip up, I’ll continue to back them at a short number against lesser competition, even on the road.
Alabama at Mississippi State
Alabama 1H -10 (-120)
3-Unit Play on 10/13
Last week stunk losing on this exact play, and then watching Alabama go down in the game. That just makes me like going back to the first half even more this week. ‘Bama shutout Mississippi State last year, and Nick Saban will 100% have the Tide ready to go this week. I’m expecting a very one-sided game out of the gates.
Arizona State at Utah
Utah +1 (-110)
2-Unit Play on 10/13
Utah can’t be thrilled with its start to the season, but both of its losses were out of conference to teams that are currently ranked. That leaves the Utes in a great spot to keep taking down PAC-12 competition and have a shot to win this conference. Arizona State is a solid team, but the slow start for Utah gets us a good price on them at home this week. Making the switch at QB very well could save this season for the Utes. I still think this can be a nine or 10 win team with the potential to win the conference.
Hawaii at Nevada
Nevada -14 (-110)
1-Unit Play on 10/8
Hawaii upset the Wolfpack on the island last year, and that should have a very good Nevada team looking for revenge at home this time around. It’s a lot of points to lay, but with motivation on Nevada’s side, I’m comfortable giving double digits. Carson Strong is climbing the board to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, and should sling it against this Rainbow Warriors defense going on the road. The Wolfpack have won their two home games by a combined 66 points so far this season, while Hawaii is 1-2 on the road with both losses by 18 or more.
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